Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period
Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period
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DOI：
10.1126/science.abb5793
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发表时间：
2020-05-22
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Lipsitch, Marc
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kissler, Stephen M.;Tedijanto, Christine;Lipsitch, Marc
迫切需要了解严重的急性呼吸综合症 - 核纳病毒2（SARS-COV-2）传播的未来。我们使用来自美国的时间序列数据的人类冠状病毒OC43（HCOV-OC43）（HCOV-OC43）和HCOV-HKU1的季节性，免疫力和跨免疫性的估计值，以告知SARS-COV-2传输模型。我们预计，在最初，最严重的大流行波浪中，SARS-COV-2的冬季季节爆发可能会发生。没有其他干预措施，社会疏远成功的关键指标是是否超出了重症监护能力。为了避免这种情况，可能需要长期或间歇性的社会疏远到2022年。其他干预措施，包括扩大的重症监护能力和有效的治疗方法，将改善间歇性疏远的成功，并加快对群群免疫的获取。迫切需要纵向血清学研究，以确定对SARS-COV-2的免疫力的程度和持续时间。即使在明显消除的情况下，也应保持SARS-COV-2监视，因为直至2024年，传染的复苏也可能发生。
It is urgent to understand the future of severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. We used estimates of seasonality, immunity, and cross-immunity for human coronavirus OC43 (HCoV-OC43) and HCoV-HKU1 using time-series data from the United States to inform a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We projected that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the initial, most severe pandemic wave. Absent other interventions, a key metric for the success of social distancing is whether critical care capacities are exceeded. To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022. Additional interventions, including expanded critical care capacity and an effective therapeutic, would improve the success of intermittent distancing and hasten the acquisition of herd immunity. Longitudinal serological studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained because a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.