Hydrologic impact of regional climate change for the snowfed and glacierfed river basins in the Republic of Tajikistan: hydrological response of flow to climate change
Hydrologic impact of regional climate change for the snowfed and glacierfed river basins in the Republic of Tajikistan: hydrological response of flow to climate change
复制标题
区域气候变化对塔吉克斯坦共和国雪水和冰川河流域的水文影响：流量对气候变化的水文响应
DOI：
10.1002/hyp.9535
复制
发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Z. Chen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Kure;S. Jang;N. Ohara;M. L. Kavvas;Z. Chen
地球大气系统变暖可能会改变气温和降水，从而影响世界各地流域的气候、水文和水资源。在以雪或冰川为主的盆地中，温度变化的重要性变得更加重要，温度变化控制着冬末、春季和夏季的融雪过程。在这项研究中，基于降尺度大气数据作为输入，利用流域水文模型分析了 Pyanj 和 Vaksh 河流域水流对气候变化的水文响应，以评估塔吉克斯坦共和国雪水和冰川水流域的区域气候变化影响。分析结果发现，由于气温升高和随之而来的冰雪融化速度的增加，未来在雪和冰川占主导地位的地区，年平均河流流量将增加，直到2060年左右。然后，从2080年左右开始，年平均流量开始减少，因为冰川地区的小冰川开始消失。研究还发现，由于未来气候变暖，一年中的水文流量状况逐渐发生变化，高流量出现在水文年的早期。此外，从洪水频率分析结果可以推断，到 21 世纪末，Pyanj 和 Vaksh 河流域的年度最大日流量（包括 100 年重现期流量）显着增加。版权所有 © 2012 约翰·威利父子有限公司
The warming of the Earth's atmosphere system is likely to change temperature and precipitation, which may affect the climate, hydrology and water resources at the river basins over the world. The importance of temperature change becomes even greater in snow or glacier dominated basins where it controls the snowmelt processes during the late‐winter, spring and summer months. In this study hydrologic responses of streamflow in the Pyanj and Vaksh River basins to climate change are analysed with a watershed hydrology model, based on the downscaled atmospheric data as input, in order to assess the regional climate change impact for the snowfed and glacierfed river basins in the Republic of Tajikistan. As a result of this analysis, it was found that the annual mean river discharge is increasing in the future at snow and glacier dominated areas due to the air temperature increase and the consequent increase in snow/ice melt rates until about 2060. Then the annual mean flow discharge starts to decrease from about 2080 onward because the small glaciers start to disappear in the glacier areas. It was also found that there is a gradual change in the hydrologic flow regime throughout a year, with the high flows occuring earlier in the hydrologic year, due to the warmer climate in the future. Furthermore, significant increases in annual maximum daily flows, including the 100‐year return period flows, at the Pyanj and Vaksh River basins toward the end of the 21st century can be inferred from flood frequency analysis results. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.