An assessment of the foundational assumptions in high-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09
An assessment of the foundational assumptions in high-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09
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DOI：
10.1007/s11229-015-0739-8
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发表时间：
2015-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
1.5
通讯作者：
Stainforth, David A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Frigg, Roman;Smith, Leonard A.;Stainforth, David A.
英国气候影响计划的 UKCP09 项目通过对大型全球气候模型的输出进行后处理，对 2100 年的气候进行高分辨率预测。本文的目的是描述和分析所使用的方法，然后提醒大家注意。鉴于所有当前气候模型都存在公认的系统性、共同的错误，将模型输出视为与决策相关的预测可能会产生严重误导。在推断情况下，例如对未来气候变化的预测，没有理由期望模型输出的后处理能够纠正此类错误的后果。这让人怀疑我们今天是否有能力在本世纪末以高分辨率做出可靠的概率预测。
The United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme's UKCP09 project makes high-resolution projections of the climate out to 2100 by post-processing the outputs of a large-scale global climate model. The aim of this paper is to describe and analyse the methodology used and then urge some caution. Given the acknowledged systematic, shared errors of all current climate models, treating model outputs as decision-relevant projections can be significantly misleading. In extrapolatory situations, such as projections of future climate change, there is little reason to expect that post-processing of model outputs can correct for the consequences of such errors. This casts doubt on our ability, today, to make trustworthy probabilistic projections at high resolution out to the end of the century.