Analyzing the penetration barriers of clean generation technologies in China’s power sector using a multi-region optimization model
Analyzing the penetration barriers of clean generation technologies in China’s power sector using a multi-region optimization model
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DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.02.034
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
Jingxuan Hui;W. Cai;C. Wang;Min Ye
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jingxuan Hui;W. Cai;C. Wang;Min Ye
为了在2030年之前达到排放峰值，实现2℃温升目标，保护人民健康，中国电力部门迫切需要增加清洁能源的份额。然而，高发电成本和电网传输能力不足仍然阻碍着清洁发电技术的发展。目前尚不清楚哪些条件能够使清洁发电技术在中国电力行业大规模普及。因此，本研究发展了一种定量计算方法，以寻找最有效的区域补贴和区域间输电能力水平，从而克服渗透障碍，充分利用中国的清洁能源资源。仿真结果表明，不同地区对不同清洁发电技术的最有效补贴是不同的。以太阳能发电为例，北部、东北和西北地区最有效的补贴为0.4元/千瓦时，南部地区为0.7元/千瓦时，如果这些补贴得以实施，到2050年太阳能发电在中国电力行业的份额可达到24.7%。此外，研究结果还表明，2050年最有效的区域间输电容量约为当前输电容量计划的13倍。在最有效的区域补贴和跨区域输电能力下，清洁能源发电在中国电力部门的份额可达到59.6%。
In order to peak emissions before 2030, achieve the goal of 2 °C temperature rise and protect people’s health, China’s power sector urgently needs to increase its share of clean energy. However, high generation costs and an inadequate grid transmission capacity still impedes clean generation technology development. It is still unclear which conditions would enable the large penetration of clean generation technologies in China’s power sector. Thus, this study develops a quantitative calculation method to find the most effective regional subsidy and interregional transmission capacity levels, so that the penetration barriers can be overcome and clean energy resources in China can be fully used. The simulation results indicate that the most effective subsidy for each clean generation technology differs from region to region. Using solar power as an example, the most effective subsidy in the north, northeast and northwest regions is 0.4 RMB/kW h and in the south region it is 0.7 RMB/kW h. If these subsidies are implemented, the share of solar power in the Chinese power sector can reach 24.7% by 2050. Additionally, the results also indicate that the most effective interregional transmission capacity in 2050 is about 13 times of the current transmission capacity plan. Under the most effective regional subsidies and interregional transmission capacity, the share of clean energy generation in the Chinese power sector can reach 59.6%.