The occurrence and hazards of great subduction zone earthquakes
The occurrence and hazards of great subduction zone earthquakes
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DOI：
10.1038/s43017-021-00245-w
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发表时间：
2022-01
影响因子：
42.1
通讯作者：
E. Wirth;V. Sahakian;L. Wallace;D. Melnick
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
E. Wirth;V. Sahakian;L. Wallace;D. Melnick
俯冲带地震造成了地球上一些最具破坏性的自然灾害。了解俯冲带大地震(时刻震级为M≥ 8)可能发生的地点及其破裂方式，对于限制未来的地震和海啸灾害至关重要。自2004年苏门答腊-安达曼M9.1级地震和2011M9.1级东北地震等仪器齐全的大地震发生以来，板块年龄和会聚速度影响俯冲带容纳大地震能力的假说已经被打消。在这篇综述中，我们重点介绍了某些俯冲带性质可能如何影响大地震破裂的位置和特征以及对地震和海啸的影响。对地震危险性影响最大的大地震的破裂特征包括破裂程度(向海和向陆地)、强震发源区的位置和地震复发。相比之下，海底的大滑移或位移是海啸危险的主要控制因素之一。今后在处理俯冲带造成的危害方面的改进在很大程度上取决于对俯冲带系统(包括陆上和近海)进行持续的地球物理监测、扩大开发古地震数据集以及改进跨学科和时间尺度的观测和模型的整合。
Subduction zone earthquakes result in some of the most devastating natural hazards on Earth. Knowledge of where great (moment magnitudeM≥ 8) subduction zone earthquakes can occur and how they rupture is critical to constraining future seismic and tsunami hazards. Since the occurrence of well-instrumented great earthquakes, such as the 2004M9.1 Sumatra–Andaman and 2011M9.1 Tohoku earthquakes, the hypotheses that plate age and convergence rate influence the ability of subduction zones to host large earthquakes have been dispelled. In this Review, we highlight how certain subduction zone properties might influence the location and characteristics of great earthquake rupture and impact seismic and tsunami hazard. The rupture characteristics of great earthquakes that most heavily impact earthquake hazards include the rupture extent (seaward and landward), location of strong motion-generating areas and earthquake recurrence. By contrast, large slip or displacement at the seafloor is one of the major controls of tsunami hazard. Future improvements in addressing hazards posed by subduction zones depend heavily on sustained geophysical monitoring in subduction zone systems (both onshore and offshore), expanded development of palaeoseismic data sets and improved integration of observations and models across disciplines and timescales.