Water resources planning and management based on system dynamics: a case study of Yulin city
Water resources planning and management based on system dynamics: a case study of Yulin city
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DOI：
10.1007/s10668-010-9264-6
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发表时间：
2011-04
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Xiao-Jun Wang;Jian-yun Zhang;Jiu-fu Liu;Guo-qing Wang;R. He;A. Elmahdi;S. Elsawah
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文献类型：
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作者：
Xiao-Jun Wang;Jian-yun Zhang;Jiu-fu Liu;Guo-qing Wang;R. He;A. Elmahdi;S. Elsawah
水安全是中国社会经济发展的重要组成部分。然而，由于人口增长、大量灌溉、气候变化的影响和短期政策，水资源受到持续的压力。传统的管理方法只注重增加供应和减少需求，而没有考虑控制水资源行为的复杂的相互作用和反馈循环。尽管这些方法可能提供快速解决方案，但它们往往会导致意想不到的、有时是灾难性的延迟结果。因此，水管理需要采取一种整体方法，以满足系统中相互依存的物理（例如水流入、流出）和行为（例如决策规则、感知）过程。与还原论方法不同，系统动力学（SD）采用系统级的观点来建模和分析产生系统行为的复杂结构（因果关系、反馈回路、延迟）。模拟SD模型可以评估系统范围内的长期影响，探索杠杆点，并将结果传达给决策者。本文采用SD模型方法对榆林市未来的水安全进行了研究。首先，我们提出了一个整合水供需的概念模型。在此基础上，我们建立了一个SD模型来模拟和分析水资源随时间的动态。对模型输出进行测试，以确保它令人满意地复制了系统的历史行为。该模型用于定量评估各种供需管理方案的有效性。设计并检查了三种场景：照常营业、供应管理和需求管理。结果表明，目前的管理体制不能有效满足未来的用水需求。虽然供应获取提供了短期利益，但它无法应对不断增长的人口。养护措施和需求管理手段相结合被认为是平衡供应和需求的最有效战略。
Water security is an integral aspect of the socio-economic development in China. Nevertheless, water resources are under persistent pressures because of the growing population, heavy irrigation, climate change effects and short-term policies. Traditional management approaches narrowly focus on increasing supply and reducing demand without considering the complex interactions and feedback loops that govern water resource behaviour. Whereas these approaches may provide quick fix solutions, they often lead to unanticipated, sometimes catastrophic, delayed outcomes. Therefore, water management needs to take a holistic approach that caters to the interdependent physical (e.g. water inflows, outflows) and behavioural (e.g. decision rules, perceptions) processes in the system. Unlike reductionist approaches, System Dynamics (SD) takes a system-level view for modelling and analysing the complex structure (cause–effect relationships, feedback loops, delays) that generates the systemic behaviour. Simulating the SD model allows assessing long-term system-wide impacts, exploring leverage points and communicating results to decision makers. In this paper, we follow an SD modelling approach to examine the future of water security in Yulin City. First, we present a conceptual model for integrating water supply and demand. Based on this, we build an SD model to simulate and analyse the dynamics of water resource over time. The model output is tested to ensure that it satisfactorily replicates the historical behaviour of the system. The model is used to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of various supply/demand management options. Three scenarios are designed and examined: business-as-usual, supply management, and demand management. Results show that current management regime cannot effectively meet the future water demand. Whereas supply acquisition provides short-term benefits, it cannot cope with the growing population. A combination of conservation measures and demand-management instruments is regarded the most effective strategy for balancing supply and demand.