Asian Drivers: Typologies and Questions
Asian Drivers: Typologies and Questions
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亚洲司机：类型和问题
DOI：
10.1111/j.1759-5436.2006.tb00247.x
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发表时间：
2006
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
H. Schmitz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
H. Schmitz
人们一致认为，首先，全球经济日益相互关联；其次，经济实力正在从西方转向东方，尤其是中国。因此，这种权力转移将对世界其他地区产生影响。然而，这些影响的程度和形式尚不清楚。本文提出了一些概念上的区别和问题，以便组织未来对发展中国家的影响的研究。这些含义开始在文献中受到关注。特别有用的是Lall和Albaladejo（2004）、Mesquita Moreira（2004）、Jenkins和Edwards（2004）、Dussel Peters（2005即将出版）和Kaplinsky （2005b）的研究。在这些工作的基础上，发展研究所和伙伴机构发起了一个新的研究方案，力求更深入、更广泛地研究其影响。这个节目的题目是“亚洲司机对发展中国家的影响”（IDS 2005）。“亚洲驱动者”的概念解释如下：“从20世纪后期开始，拥有全球一半以上人口的亚洲经济体开始作为全球生产者发挥越来越重要的作用。这种复兴始于20世纪60年代后的日本，然后在20世纪的最后25年传播到数量有限的东亚中小经济体。在新千年开始之际，亚洲的势头因两个非常大的经济体- -中国和印度- -的非常迅速的增长而大大加强，这两个国家的人口各占全球人口的20%左右，它们的经济增长率持续每年超过7%。但是，亚洲在全球经济中日益增长的存在，并不仅仅是这两个经济体的基础。特别是中国被纳入一个涉及泰国和越南等一些中等经济体的区域生产体系，印度正积极开始寻求与其他南亚区域经济体建立联系。我们把这些新兴的、规模较大的亚洲经济体称为“亚洲驱动力”。这些亚洲驱动因素可能对全球经济产生重大影响”（IDS 2005: 1，另见Kaplinsky对本IDS公报的介绍）。然后，该方案制定了研究亚洲驱动因素对发展中国家影响的议程，区分直接影响和间接影响以及互补影响和竞争影响。虽然纲领既包括贸易和生产领域的变化，也包括金融领域的变化，但本文只涉及前者，即“实体经济”的变化。关于不断变化的资金流动及其影响的分析，见GriffithJones（2004）和Gottschalk（在本期IDS公报中）。本文的主要目的是为未来的工作提出一个概念性的工具，并为研究人员和决策者提出关键问题。第2节区分了三种类型的亚洲驱动因素，并指出了适合研究这些驱动因素的分析框架。第3节对三种类型的亚洲驱动因素进行了分解，并列出了每种类型出现的新研究问题。第4节将亚洲驱动因素的争论与区域一体化的争论联系起来，展示浅一体化和深一体化之间的区别如何有助于汇集新贸易理论和价值链分析的最佳成果。第5节介绍了一个矩阵，用于组织讨论亚洲驱动因素的影响。最后的第6节提出了政策制定者和实践者面临的一些新问题。
There is agreement that first, the global economy is increasingly interconnected and second, economic power is shifting from the West to the East, in particular China. It follows that this shift in power will have ramifications for the rest of the world. The extent and form of these ramifications, however, are not clear. This article proposes some conceptual distinction and questions for organising future research on the implications for developing countries. These implications are beginning to receive attention in the literature. Particularly useful are the studies of Lall and Albaladejo (2004), Mesquita Moreira (2004), Jenkins and Edwards (2004), Dussel Peters (2005 forthcoming) and Kaplinsky (2005b). Building on these works, a new research programme, initiated by the Institute of Development Studies and partner institutions, seeks to study the implications with greater depth and scope. This programme is entitled ‘The Impact of Asian Drivers on the Developing World’ (IDS 2005). The notion of Asian Drivers is explained as follows: ‘From the late twentieth century, Asian economies, with more than half of the global population, began to play an increasingly important role as global producers. This revival began in Japan after the 1960s, and then spread to a limited number of smalland mediumsized East Asian economies during the last quarter of the century. At the dawn of the new millennium the momentum of Asia has been significantly strengthened by the very rapid growth of two very large economies – China and India, each with around 20 per cent of the global population, have seen sustained rates of economic growth exceeding 7 per cent annually. But it is not just these two economies which underlie Asia’s growing presence in the global economy. China in particular is integrated into a regional system of production involving a number of medium-sized economies such as Thailand and Vietnam, and India is actively beginning to pursue links with other South Asian regional economies. We refer to these newly dynamic and generally large Asian economies as the “Asian Drivers”. These Asian Drivers are likely to have a significant impact on the global economy’ (IDS 2005: 1, see also Kaplinsky’s Introduction to this IDS Bulletin). The programme then sets out an agenda for research on the effects of the Asian Drivers on the developing world, distinguishing between direct and indirect effects and between complementary and competitive impact. While the programme covers both changes in the sphere of trade and production and in the sphere of finance, this article is only concerned with the former, that is, changes in the “real economy”. For an analysis of changing financial flows and their implications, see GriffithJones (2004) and Gottschalk (in this IDS Bulletin). The main purpose of this article is to suggest a conceptual apparatus for future work and set out the key questions for researchers and policy-makers. Section 2 distinguishes between three types of Asian Drivers and indicates the analytical framework appropriate for examining these Drivers. Section 3 disaggregates the three types of Asian Drivers and sets out the new research questions that arise for each type. Section 4 connects the debate on Asian Drivers with the debate on regional integration, showing how the distinction between shallow and deep integration can help to bring together the best from new trade theory and value chain analysis. Section 5 introduces a matrix for organising the discussion of the effects of the Asian Drivers. The final Section 6 sets out some of the new questions to be confronted by policy-makers and practitioners.