Three stages in the co-transformation of the energy and mobility sector
Three stages in the co-transformation of the energy and mobility sector
复制标题
能源和交通领域共同转型的三个阶段
DOI：
10.1016/j.rser.2021.111494
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
D. Witthaut
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Morgenthaler;Justus Dunzen;I. Stadler;D. Witthaut
风能和太阳能等可再生能源在效率、成本和可用性方面取得了显着的发展，但系统集成仍然是一个挑战。实现完全可再生的电力供应需要大规模的存储技术和灵活的用户来克服长期低发电量的问题。与此同时，交通和工业等其他部门必须实现电气化，以取代化石燃料。电力转化为甲烷是一项很有前途的技术，因为它可以利用现有基础设施实现大规模能源存储和部门耦合。在这项工作中，我们分析了德国电力、交通和工业部门的共同转型，考虑到最近到 2038 年逐步淘汰煤炭的决定。我们使用开源框架 OSeMOSYS 中具有高技术和时间分辨率的技术经济优化模型来评估可再生能源的必要容量和存储选项的规模，以及系统成本和相关排放。我们发现，排放上限的降低和煤炭的淘汰推动了转型的三个截然不同的阶段。到 2030 年，太阳能发电将大幅扩展，而到 2040 年，煤炭将主要被化石天然气取代。2040 年之后，排放上限将变得非常具有挑战性，因为所有灵活性选项都将大幅扩展：存储、限电和灵活的电力转化为甲烷。
Renewable electricity sources such as wind and solar power have shown a remarkable development in terms of efficiency, costs and availability, but system integration still remains a challenge. Realizing a fully renewable electricity supply will require large scale storage technologies and flexible users to overcome long periods of low power generation. At the same time, other sectors such as mobility and industry must be electrified to replace fossil fuels. Power-to-methane is a promising technology as it enables large-scale energy storage and sector coupling using existing infrastructures. In this work, we analyze the co-transformation of the German electricity, mobility and industry sectors, taking into account the recent decision to phase out coal by 2038. We evaluate the necessary capacities of renewables and sizes for storage options, as well as system costs and associated emissions using a techno-economic optimization model with a high technological and temporal resolution in the open-source framework OSeMOSYS. We find three rather different stages of the transformation driven by the decreasing emissions cap and the coal phase-out. Solar power is expanded vastly up to 2030, whilst coal is replaced mainly by fossil natural gas by 2040. Emissions caps become very challenging after 2040 to the extent that all flexibility options are greatly expanded: storage, curtailment and flexible power-to-methane.