Climate change and species interactions: ways forward
Climate change and species interactions: ways forward
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DOI：
10.1111/nyas.12286
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发表时间：
2013-01-01
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Ostfeld, Richard S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Angert, Amy L.;LaDeau, Shannon L.;Ostfeld, Richard S.
随着气候持续快速变化，生态学家面临的挑战是预测单个物种的丰度和分布将如何变化，生物群落的结构和功能将如何变化，以及这些气候引起的变化对生态系统功能的影响。现在有充分的证据表明，气候变化通过气候对种间相互作用的影响而对物种丰度和分布产生的间接影响可以超过甚至逆转气候的直接影响。然而，将物种相互作用纳入生物变化预测的清晰框架仍然难以捉摸。展望未来，我们建议研究界优先考虑三个重点：（1）利用易于处理的研究系统作为案例研究来说明可能的结果、理论强调的测试过程，并反馈到建模工作中； (2) 开发一个稳健的分析框架，以实现更好的跨尺度联系； (3) 确定在什么时间尺度和哪些系统中预测生物对气候变化的反应是有用且可行的目标。最后，我们列出了一系列研究问题，这些问题可以指导未来的研究，以帮助理解并有望减轻气候变化对生物群及其提供的生态系统服务的负面影响。
With ongoing and rapid climate change, ecologists are being challenged to predict how individual species will change in abundance and distribution, how biotic communities will change in structure and function, and the consequences of these climate-induced changes for ecosystem functioning. It is now well documented that indirect effects of climate change on species abundances and distributions, via climatic effects on interspecific interactions, can outweigh and even reverse the direct effects of climate. However, a clear framework for incorporating species interactions into projections of biological change remains elusive. To move forward, we suggest three priorities for the research community: (1) utilize tractable study systems as case studies to illustrate possible outcomes, test processes highlighted by theory, and feed back into modeling efforts; (2) develop a robust analytical framework that allows for better cross-scale linkages; and (3) determine over what time scales and for which systems prediction of biological responses to climate change is a useful and feasible goal. We end with a list of research questions that can guide future research to help understand, and hopefully mitigate, the negative effects of climate change on biota and the ecosystem services they provide.