A Spatial Agent-Based Model to Explore Scenarios of Adaptation to Climate Change in an Alpine Tourism Destination
A Spatial Agent-Based Model to Explore Scenarios of Adaptation to Climate Change in an Alpine Tourism Destination
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基于空间代理的模型探索阿尔卑斯旅游目的地适应气候变化的情景
DOI：
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
C. Giupponi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Balbi;P. Perez;C. Giupponi
大量文献表明，欧洲阿尔卑斯地区可能是对气候变化影响最敏感的地区之一。阿尔卑斯山社会生态系统对气候变化的适应日益成为科学界关注的问题，而阿尔卑斯山人民往往没有意识到或干脆忽视这个问题。 ClimAlpTour是高山太空计划的欧洲研究项目，汇集了高山拱门各国的机构和学者，旨在应对预期的冰雪覆盖减少，这可能会导致人们对冬季运动传统愿景之外的旅游业发展进行重新思考。本文报告的研究分析了多洛米蒂山脉中著名的“Tre Cime di Lavaredo”山峰下的 Auronzo di Cadore 市（22,000 公顷）。当地经济依赖旅游业，目前旅游业以夏季为主，冬季较弱。总体而言，该目的地每年接待约 65,000 名游客，常住人口为 3,600 人。最近，社区委员会正在考虑如何刺激冬季旅游业进一步发展的方案。本文引用了一种名为 AuronzoWinSim 的基于代理的原型模型，用于评估未来当地发展战略的替代方案，同时考虑到复杂的空间和社会动态和相互作用。不同类型的冬季游客组成了一组人类代理。气候变化情景用于生成温度和积雪预测。该模型主要由二手来源提供信息，包括人口和经济时间序列以及提供其空间维度的生物物理数据。现场调查的原始数据用于校准主要参数。 AuronzoWinSim 计划在当地利益相关者群体参与的环境中使用。
A vast body of literature suggests that the European Alpine region may be one of the most sensitive to climate change impacts. Adaptation to climate change of Alpine socio-ecosystems is increasingly becoming an issue of interest for the scientific community while the people of the Alps are often unaware of or simply ignore the problem. ClimAlpTour is a European research project of the Alpine Space Programme, bringing together institutions and scholars from all countries of the Alpine arch, in view of dealing with the expected decrease in snow and ice cover, which may lead to a rethinking of tourism development beyond the traditional vision of winter sports. The research reported herein analyses the municipality of Auronzo di Cadore (22,000 ha) in the Dolomites under the famous peaks of the �Tre Cime di Lavaredo�. The local economy depends on tourism which is currently focused on the summer season, while the winter season is weak. As a whole, the destination receives approximately 65,000 guests per year with a resident population of 3,600 inhabitants. Since recently the Community Council is considering options on how to stimulate a further development of the winter tourism. This paper refers to a prototype agent-based model, called AuronzoWinSim, for the assessment of alternative scenarios of future local development strategies, taking into account complex spatial and social dynamics and interactions. Different typologies of winter tourists compose the set of human agents. Climate change scenarios are used to produce temperature and snow cover projections. The model is mainly informed by secondary sources, including demographic and economic time series, and biophysical data which feed-in its spatial dimension. Primary data from field surveys are used to calibrate the main parameters. AuronzoWinSim is planned for use in a participatory context with groups of local stakeholders.