Strengthening weather forecast and dissemination capabilities in Central Africa: Case assessment of intense flooding in January 2020
Strengthening weather forecast and dissemination capabilities in Central Africa: Case assessment of intense flooding in January 2020
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DOI：
10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100411
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发表时间：
2023-12
期刊：
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Igri Moudi Pascal;Taguemfo Kammalac Jores;Joshua Talib;V. D. Appolinaire;L. Hirons;Nguilambouhe Christian;Dassi Tene Romeo-Ledoux;Talla Fogang Michael;Mabi Marceline;S. Tanessong Roméo;C. Dione;Elisabet I. Thompson;Abubakr A.M. Salih;Semingar Ngaryamgaye
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Igri Moudi Pascal;Taguemfo Kammalac Jores;Joshua Talib;V. D. Appolinaire;L. Hirons;Nguilambouhe Christian;Dassi Tene Romeo-Ledoux;Talla Fogang Michael;Mabi Marceline;S. Tanessong Roméo;C. Dione;Elisabet I. Thompson;Abubakr A.M. Salih;Semingar Ngaryamgaye
2020年1月的第一个十月，刚果共和国首都布拉柴维尔出现强降水，导致多处局部山体滑坡。卫星得出的降雨量估计和雨量计总数表明，2020年1月6日至9日期间，刚果南部将出现一段强烈的潮湿天气。这项研究重点介绍了中部非洲国家经济共同体（中非经共体）气候应用和预测中心（CAPC）编制的用户驱动的天气和气候预报公告的生成和实施情况，以减少这十年期间强降水的影响。通过这样做，我们记录了整个中部非洲区域规模气候服务的现状。CAPC生成的建议和展望使用世界气象组织（WMO）开发的风险矩阵，并以小时，每日，亚季节和季节时间尺度生成。为了开发这些模型，CAPC联合收割机的气象学家和气候科学家结合了来自广泛的气象观测和预报的信息。区域范围的预报缩小到个别国家，以提高可获得性和相关性，中部非洲用户报告说，公报为减轻极端天气的影响提供了支持，并要求提供更可靠的次季节和季节预报产品。在本文中，我们借此机会讨论通过卫星和气象信息抗灾能力（SAWIDRA）框架获得的资源，这些资源在发达国家通常被视为理所当然，包括采购高性能计算系统，卫星数据和数值模型输出接收站。这项研究首次突出了整个中非区域规模气候服务的现状，并推动了整个区域气候服务的进一步合作。
The first dekad of January 2020 was characterised by heavy precipitation in the capital of the Republic of Congo, Brazzaville, which led to several localised landslides. Satellite-derived rainfall estimates and rain-gauge totals illustrate a strong wet spell between the 6th and 9th January 2020 across southern Congo. This study highlights the generation and implementation of user-driven weather and climate forecast bulletins, developed at the Economic Communities of Central African States (ECCAS) Climate Application and Prediction Centre (CAPC), to reduce the impacts associated with intense precipitation during this dekad. Through doing so, we document the current state of regional-scale climate services across Central Africa. Advisories and outlooks generated by CAPC use risk matrices developed by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and are produced at hourly, daily, sub-seasonal, and seasonal timescales. To develop them, meteorologists and climate scientists at CAPC combine information from a wide range of meteorological observations and forecasts. Regional-scale forecasts are downscaled to individual countries to improve accessibility and relevance.Central African users have reported that bulletins provide support for mitigating against the impacts of extreme weather and have requested more reliable sub-seasonal and seasonal forecast products. In this paper we take the opportunity to discuss the resources obtained through the Satellite and Weather Information for Disaster Resilience (SAWIDRA) framework, which are often taken for granted in developed nations, including the procurement of a high performance computing system, satellite data and numerical models outputs receiving stations. This study is the first to highlight the current state of regional-scale climate services across Central Africa and motivates further co-production of climate services across the region.