Spatiotemporal dynamics of the Ebola epidemic in Guinea and implications for vaccination and disease elimination: a computational modeling analysis.
Spatiotemporal dynamics of the Ebola epidemic in Guinea and implications for vaccination and disease elimination: a computational modeling analysis.
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DOI：
10.1186/s12916-016-0678-3
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发表时间：
2016-09-07
期刊：
影响因子：
9.3
通讯作者：
Vespignani A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ajelli M;Merler S;Fumanelli L;Pastore Y Piontti A;Dean NE;Longini IM Jr;Halloran ME;Vespignani A
在2014-2015年受埃博拉病毒病疫情影响最严重的三个国家中，几内亚呈现出不同寻常的时空流行格局，在疫情的衰减过程中呈现出多波、长尾的趋势。在这里，我们在单个家庭层面开发了一个基于随机主体的模型，该模型集成了几内亚人口统计、医院、埃博拉治疗单位、接触者追踪和安全埋葬干预措施的详细数据。基于微模拟的模型评估了不同干预方案（包括重组水泡性口炎病毒载体疫苗环接种）下各控制策略的效果和消除疫情的概率。数值结果表明，几内亚埃博拉疫情的动态可以用实施干预措施的时间轴来定量解释。特别是，早期提供埃博拉治疗单位以及相关的病例隔离和安全埋葬有助于限制几内亚经历的埃博拉病例数。我们提供了定量证据，证明病例时间序列与追踪的接触者数量之间存在强烈的负相关关系。计算模型证实了这一结果，表明接触者追踪工作是控制和消除疾病的关键决定因素。在数据驱动的微模拟中，我们发现在疫情消除阶段，追踪每个病例至少5-10名接触者对于防止疫情再次暴发至关重要。计算模型用于提供环疫苗接种试验的分析，突出其对疾病消除的潜在影响。我们确定接触者追踪是几内亚疫情行为的关键决定因素之一，我们表明早期提供埃博拉治疗床位有助于限制几内亚埃博拉病例的数量。本文的在线版本（doi:10.1186/s12916-016-0678-3）包含补充材料，可供授权用户使用。
Among the three countries most affected by the Ebola virus disease outbreak in 2014–2015, Guinea presents an unusual spatiotemporal epidemic pattern, with several waves and a long tail in the decay of the epidemic incidence. Here, we develop a stochastic agent-based model at the level of a single household that integrates detailed data on Guinean demography, hospitals, Ebola treatment units, contact tracing, and safe burial interventions. The microsimulation-based model is used to assess the effect of each control strategy and the probability of elimination of the epidemic according to different intervention scenarios, including ring vaccination with the recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus-vectored vaccine. The numerical results indicate that the dynamics of the Ebola epidemic in Guinea can be quantitatively explained by the timeline of the implemented interventions. In particular, the early availability of Ebola treatment units and the associated isolation of cases and safe burials helped to limit the number of Ebola cases experienced by Guinea. We provide quantitative evidence of a strong negative correlation between the time series of cases and the number of traced contacts. This result is confirmed by the computational model that suggests that contact tracing effort is a key determinant in the control and elimination of the disease. In data-driven microsimulations, we find that tracing at least 5–10 contacts per case is crucial in preventing epidemic resurgence during the epidemic elimination phase. The computational model is used to provide an analysis of the ring vaccination trial highlighting its potential effect on disease elimination. We identify contact tracing as one of the key determinants of the epidemic’s behavior in Guinea, and we show that the early availability of Ebola treatment unit beds helped to limit the number of Ebola cases in Guinea. The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12916-016-0678-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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影响因子：
19
作者：
Nishiura, H.;Chowell, G.
通讯作者：
Chowell, G.
DOI：
10.1056/nejmoa1411100
发表时间：
2014-10-16
期刊：
The New England journal of medicine
影响因子：
--
作者：
WHO Ebola Response Team;Aylward B;Barboza P;Bawo L;Bertherat E;Bilivogui P;Blake I;Brennan R;Briand S;Chakauya JM;Chitala K;Conteh RM;Cori A;Croisier A;Dangou JM;Diallo B;Donnelly CA;Dye C;Eckmanns T;Ferguson NM;Formenty P;Fuhrer C;Fukuda K;Garske T;Gasasira A;Gbanyan S;Graaff P;Heleze E;Jambai A;Jombart T;Kasolo F;Kadiobo AM;Keita S;Kertesz D;Koné M;Lane C;Markoff J;Massaquoi M;Mills H;Mulba JM;Musa E;Myhre J;Nasidi A;Nilles E;Nouvellet P;Nshimirimana D;Nuttall I;Nyenswah T;Olu O;Pendergast S;Perea W;Polonsky J;Riley S;Ronveaux O;Sakoba K;Santhana Gopala Krishnan R;Senga M;Shuaib F;Van Kerkhove MD;Vaz R;Wijekoon Kannangarage N;Yoti Z
通讯作者：
Yoti Z
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Wells, Chad;Yamin, Dan;Galvani, Alison P.
通讯作者：
Galvani, Alison P.
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Lloyd-Smith JO;Schreiber SJ;Kopp PE;Getz WM
通讯作者：
Getz WM
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1508814112
发表时间：
2015-11-17
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Kucharski, Adam J.;Camacho, Anton;Funk, Sebastian
通讯作者：
Funk, Sebastian