Increased Diversity and Deepened Uncertainty: Policy Challenges in a Zero‐Inflation Economy*
Increased Diversity and Deepened Uncertainty: Policy Challenges in a Zero‐Inflation Economy*
复制标题
多样性增加和不确定性加深：零通胀经济中的政策挑战*
DOI：
10.1111/j.1468-2362.2007.00207.x
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发表时间：
2007
影响因子：
1.2
通讯作者：
K. Nishimura
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
K. Nishimura
当今的世界经济呈现出“巨大的多样性”。全球不同地区有多种增长引擎。风险是多样化的，因为许多新的金融产品正在被推出并出售给不断涌入金融界的新来者。这种增加的多样性似乎在两个方面加深了围绕货币政策的不确定性。首先，再加上竞争加剧，这可能会使价格对短期需求变化的反应不如以前，从而使货币传导机制不那么确定。事实上，在过去的15年里，日本的IS和菲利普斯曲线似乎越来越不确定。其次，我们正处于一种多元化程度较低的金融结构和另一种多元化程度较高的金融结构之间的过渡时期。在过渡时期，信息稀缺并迅速过时，对金融稳定构成了真正的挑战。我认为，世行现在采取的灵活渐进主义是应对这种加深的不确定性的一种谨慎方式。版权所有2007布莱克韦尔出版有限公司
The world economy today shows 'great diversity'. There are multiple engines of growth in various regions around the globe. Risks are diversified, as many novel financial products are being introduced and sold to a continuing flow of newcomers to the financial world. This increased diversity seems to deepen uncertainty surrounding monetary policy in two respects. First, coupled with increased competition, it may make prices less responsive to short-run demand changes than before, thus making monetary transmission mechanism less certain. In fact, Japanese IS and Phillips curves seem increasingly uncertain in the past 15 years. Second, we are in transition between one financial structure of little diversification and another of great diversification. In a transition period, information is scarce and rapidly becomes obsolete, posing real challenges to financial stability. I argue that the flexible gradualism, which the Bank has now adopted, is a prudent way to cope with such deepened uncertainty. Copyright 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd