China's emergence : prospects, opportunities, and challenges
China's emergence : prospects, opportunities, and challenges
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中国的崛起：前景、机遇与挑战
DOI：
10.1111/1467-8381.00015
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发表时间：
1996
影响因子：
1.3
通讯作者：
Andrea Boltho
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Andrea Boltho
两位作者研究了迅速崛起的中国与世界其他地区之间的经济互动在未来20年可能会如何演变。他们讨论了中国的增长潜力，将中国的崛起与英国、日本和美国的历史崛起相提并论。他们认为，除非出现重大破坏，否则到2020年，中国可能会成为世界上最大的经济体之一，甚至是最大的经济体。工业国家，尤其是日本和美国，预计将受益，因为它们的贸易结构与中国的互补。发展中国家，特别是劳动密集型制成品的出口国，可能会面临竞争压力。两位作者认为，中国采取追随国的传统战略将是有利的--即经常账户赤字，并利用外国资源补充国内投资。如果外国直接投资继续保持目前的速度，中国可能不得不应对其经常账户赤字的过度融资。两位作者主张制定一种发展战略，在实现可持续增长的同时，提高经常账户赤字，从而提高消费水平，降低国内储蓄水平，并缓和有利于沿海地区的政策倾向。这样的战略将更快地提高消费标准。它还将缓解不同地区不平等发展所产生的一些社会紧张局势。至于中国对外部环境的脆弱性，两位作者认为，从长远来看，面对不利的外部发展，尤其是来自亚洲以外的发展，中国是有韧性的。然而，在短期内，不利的外部冲击可能会威胁到对改革至关重要的宏观经济稳定。对中国在美国失去最惠国待遇的模拟分析证实了这一断言。两位作者的结论是，保持开放符合中国的最大利益，特别是如果美国与中国保持开放的贸易关系，从长远来看，美国将受益良多。美国的对抗性政策可能会鼓励中国、日本和其他亚洲国家更倾向于区域内贸易，可能会将美国排除在全面参与这一注定是世界上最具活力的增长极之外。
The authors examine how the economic interactions between rapidly emerging China and the rest of the world may evolve over the coming two decades. They discuss China's growth potential, drawing a parallel between China's rise and the historical rise of Britain, Japan and the United States. Barring major disruptions, they contend, China could become one of the world's largest economies, if not the largest, by the year 2020. Industrial countries, especially Japan and the US , are expected to benefit because their trade structure complements China's. Developing countries, especially exporters of labor-intensive manufactured products, are likely to be put under competitive pressure. The authors argue that it would be advantageous for China to embark on the traditional strategy of a follower country -- that is, to run current account deficits and use foreign resources to supplement domestic investment. Should foreign direct investment continue at its recent rate, China may have to cope with overfinancing of its current account deficits. The authors argue for a development strategy that projects a sustainable growth rate with somewhat higher current account deficits and, therefore, somewhat higher levels of consumption and lower domestic savings, and a toning down of a policy bias that favors coastal regions. Such a strategy would lift consumption standards more rapidly. It would also defuse some of the social tensions generated by the unequal development of different regions. As for the country's vulnerability to the external environment, the authors argue that in the long run China is resilient in the face of adverse external developments, especially those coming from outside Asia. In the short term, however, adverse external shocks could threaten the macroeconomic stability important to reform. A simulation analysis of China's loss of most-favored-nation status in the US confirms this assertion. The authors conclude that preserving openness is in China's best interest and that the US in particular stands to gain much in the longer run if it maintains open trade relations with China. Adversarial US policies could encourage China, Japan and other Asian countries to prefer intraregional trade, possibly excluding the US from full participation in what is bound to be the world's most dynamic growth pole.