Updated Risk/Benefit Analysis of Fish Consumption Effects on Neurodevelopment: Implications for Setting Advisories
Updated Risk/Benefit Analysis of Fish Consumption Effects on Neurodevelopment: Implications for Setting Advisories
复制标题
DOI：
10.1080/10807039.2014.992851
复制
发表时间：
2015-10-03
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
McCann, P. J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ginsberg, G. L.;Toal, B. F.;McCann, P. J.
流行病学研究表明，怀孕期间食用鱼类可以改善神经发育。这表明鱼中的有益营养成分可能抵消普通鱼粉中汞的不利影响。然而，我们之前的风险/效益模型预测了大多数分析物种的净神经发育风险。在本文中，之前的模型根据鱼类效益数据进行校准，然后与其他鱼类风险/效益模型（包括世界卫生组织和美国食品和药物管理局的最新模型）进行比较。我们的校准模型估计，与其他模型相比，低汞物种的益处更大，但高汞物种的风险更大。对于一种常见的高汞鱼箭鱼，校准模型产生的风险支持当前的鱼类建议，但相比之下，其他模型预测了神经发育的净益处。校准模型用于拟议的三步框架中，用于制定鱼类消费建议： (1) 根据汞 RfD 设定初始消费水平； (2) 如果风险/收益模型显示净收益，则上调消费； (3) 根据 O-3 效益的饱和度限制鱼类消费。该方法对 7 种鱼类的影响用于说明该框架。
Epidemiological studies indicate that fish consumption during pregnancy leads to improved neurodevelopment. This suggests that the beneficial nutrients in fish may offset the adverse effects of mercury in the case of the average fish meal. However, our previous risk/benefit model predicted a net neurodevelopmental risk for the majority of species analyzed. In this article the previous model is calibrated against fish benefit data and then compared to other fish risk/benefit models, including recent models from the World Health Organization and USFDA. Our calibrated model estimated greater benefit for low mercury species but greater risk for high mercury species than the other models. With respect to a commonly eaten high mercury fish, swordfish, the calibrated model yielded risks that are supportive of current fish advisories but, in contrast, the other models predicted net neurodevelopmental benefits. The calibrated model was used in a proposed 3 step framework for setting fish consumption advisories: (1) Set initial consumption level based upon mercury RfD; (2) Adjust consumption upward if risk/benefit model indicates a net benefit; (3) Cap fish consumption based upon saturation of O-3 benefit. The implications of this approach for 7 varieties of fish are used to illustrate the framework.