A global analysis of land take in cropland areas and production displacement from urbanization
A global analysis of land take in cropland areas and production displacement from urbanization
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.02.001
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发表时间：
2017-03
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
J. Vliet;David A. Eitelberg;P. Verburg
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Vliet;David A. Eitelberg;P. Verburg
在大规模土地变化评估中，城市增长几乎没有受到关注，因为在全球范围内，建设用地的面积相对较小。然而，由于世界许多地区的人口增长、从农村向城市的迁移和财富的增加，这一地区正在迅速增加。此外，城市发展对其他土地利用的影响因相关的土地使用而进一步放大，如娱乐和城市绿化。在这项研究中，我们使用土地系统的方法分析了2000年和2040年耕地地区的城市土地占用情况。截至2000年，213兆公顷可归类为城市土地，占地球表面的2.06%。然而，这些城市土地超过比例地位于适合和可用于作物生产的土地上。到2040年，这一数字将增加到621兆公顷，占地球表面的4.72%。2000年至2040年期间增加的城市土地也超过比例地分布在适合和可用于作物生产的土地上，从而进一步限制了我们的粮食生产能力。欧洲、中东北非和中国地区的耕地面积占城市土地的比例最高，而大洋洲和撒哈拉以南非洲地区的城市用地份额相对较低。在2000年至2040年期间，城市增长导致近6500万吨的作物生产流离失所，这可能会产生高达3500万MHA的新农田扩张。土地利用规划既可以影响城市化的地点，也可以影响城市化的形式，因此是减少农作物生产进一步损失的重要措施。
Urban growth has received little attention in large-scale land change assessments, because the area of built-up land is relatively small on a global scale. However, this area is increasing rapidly, due to population growth, rural-to-urban migration, and wealth increases in many parts of the world. Moreover, the impacts of urban growth on other land uses further amplified by associated land uses, such as recreation and urban green. In this study we analyze urban land take in cropland areas for the years 2000 and 2040, using a land systems approach. As of the year 2000, 213 Mha can be classified as urban land, which is 2.06% of the earth’s surface. However, this urban land is more than proportionally located on land that is suitable and available for crop production. In the year 2040, these figures increase to 621 Mha, or 4.72% of all the earth’s surface. The increase in urban land between 2000 and 2040 is also more than proportionally located on land that is suitable and available for crop production, thus further limiting our food production capacity. The share of urban land take in cropland areas is highest in Europe, the Middle-East and Northern Africa, and China, while it is relatively low in Oceania and Sub-Saharan Africa. Between 2000 and 2040, urban growth caused the displacement of almost 65 Mton of crop production, which could yield an expansion of up to 35 Mha of new cropland. Land-use planning can influence both the location and the form of urbanization, and thus appears as an important measure to minimize further losses in crop production.