North American Tropical Cyclone Landfall and SST: A Statistical Model Study
North American Tropical Cyclone Landfall and SST: A Statistical Model Study
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-12-00756.1
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发表时间：
2013-11-01
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Yonekura, Emmi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hall, Timothy;Yonekura, Emmi
一个北大西洋（NA）热带气旋（TC）的完整生命周期的南极随机模式被用来检查沿北美大西洋和墨西哥湾沿岸的气候和登陆率之间的关系。该模型利用整个北大西洋TC的存档数据，以高地理分辨率估计登陆率，作为ENSO状态和两种不同海表温度（SST）测量值之一的函数：1）北美副热带和飓风季节的平均SST，2）相对于季节性全球副热带平均SST（称为relSST）的SST。在这里，作者通过将ENSO保持在中性状态来关注SST。Jackknife不确定性检验用于检验SST和relSST登陆关系的显著性。无论是使用SST还是使用relSST，暖年的TC和大型飓风登陆总体上都比冷年多，这主要是由于整个流域的风暴数量增加。然而，沿着海岸的信号是复杂的。一些区域具有大的和显著的敏感性（例如，得克萨斯州每年主要飓风登陆概率约为2倍，relSST标准差为-2至+2），而其他地区没有明显的敏感性（例如，美国大西洋中部和东北海岸）。这种地理结构是由于两个转变的主要TC成因和TC传播的地区的变化。
A statistical-stochastic model of the complete life cycle of North Atlantic (NA) tropical cyclones (TCs) is used to examine the relationship between climate and landfall rates along the North American Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. The model draws on archived data of TCs throughout the North Atlantic to estimate landfall rates at high geographic resolution as a function of the ENSO state and one of two different measures of sea surface temperature (SST): 1) SST averaged over the NA subtropics and the hurricane season and 2) this SST relative to the seasonal global subtropical mean SST (termed relSST). Here, the authors focus on SST by holding ENSO to a neutral state. Jackknife uncertainty tests are employed to test the significance of SST and relSST landfall relationships. There are more TC and major hurricane landfalls overall in warm years than cold, using either SST or relSST, primarily due to a basinwide increase in the number of storms. The signal along the coast, however, is complex. Some regions have large and significant sensitivity (e.g., an approximate doubling of annual major hurricane landfall probability on Texas from -2 to +2 standard deviations in relSST), while other regions have no significant sensitivity (e.g., the U.S. mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts). This geographic structure is due to both shifts in the regions of primary TC genesis and shifts in TC propagation.