Global Floods and Water Availability Driven by Atmospheric Rivers
Global Floods and Water Availability Driven by Atmospheric Rivers
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DOI：
10.1002/2017gl074882
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发表时间：
2017-10-28
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Dadson, Simon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Paltan, Homero;Waliser, Duane;Dadson, Simon
虽然新出现的区域证据表明，大气河流(Ars)可以对当地的水供应和洪水产生重大影响，但它们在形成全球水文极端情况方面的作用尚未得到调查。在这里，我们量化了ARS变异性对洪水风险和水资源可获得性的相对贡献。我们发现，在全球范围内，来自Ars的降水占全球径流总量的22%，一些地区的降水量达到50%或更多。在其影响最强的地区，ARs可能使洪水发生增加80%，而没有ARs可能使水文干旱事件的发生增加高达90%。我们还发现，由于急性呼吸窘迫综合征的发生，大约有3亿人面临着额外的洪水和干旱。人工影响区是水文气候变化的来源，其有利或有害的影响取决于水资源管理者预测和适应这些变化的能力。
While emerging regional evidence shows that atmospheric rivers (ARs) can exert strong impacts on local water availability and flooding, their role in shaping global hydrological extremes has not yet been investigated. Here we quantify the relative contribution of ARs variability to both flood hazard and water availability. We find that globally, precipitation from ARs contributes 22% of total global runoff, with a number of regions reaching 50% or more. In areas where their influence is strongest, ARs may increase the occurrence of floods by 80%, while absence of ARs may increase the occurrence of hydrological droughts events by up to 90%. We also find that similar to 300 million people are exposed to additional floods and droughts due the occurrence of ARs. ARs provide a source of hydroclimatic variability whose beneficial or damaging effects depend on the capacity of water resources managers to predict and adapt to them.