Quantifying public health benefits of PM2.5 reduction and spatial distribution analysis in China
Quantifying public health benefits of PM2.5 reduction and spatial distribution analysis in China
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137445
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发表时间：
2020-06-01
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Qiu, Rongzu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Luo, Guiwen;Zhang, Lanyi;Qiu, Rongzu
近年来，颗粒物（PM）空气污染已成为中国一个重要且日益严重的公共健康问题。利用1328个监测点的数据，采用Voronoi邻域平均（VNA）插值方法，模拟了空间分辨率为100 km（2）的PM2.5日暴露水平。结果显示，PM2.5日平均浓度从47.82 μ g/m3（2016年）降至40.87 μ g/m3（2018年），降幅为14.53%。我们首先使用环境效益绘图和分析程序（BenMAP）计算了这种减少（方案1）的健康影响和经济效益。全因心血管疾病、呼吸系统疾病和肺癌的估计避免过早死亡率在7214至81,681例（总计154,176例）之间。基于支付意愿（WTP）的经济效益估计值为39.6 ~ 448.5亿元人民币（合计846.6亿元人民币）。此外，控制方案中的PM2.5浓度已回落至一级标准（35 μ g/m（3），方案2）。避免的死亡病例在58 820至590 464例之间（共计1 217 671例）。基于WTP（总计7582.1亿元人民币），所有健康终点避免病例的估计货币价值范围为366.3 - 3676.6亿元人民币。此外，空间自相关分析表明，避免的过早死亡率和经济效益的分布都表现出一定的空间聚集性。(C)2020由Elsevier B. V.出版
In recent years, particulate matter (PM) air pollution has become a significant and growing public health problem in China. In this study, the daily PM2.5 exposure level at a spatial resolution of 100 km(2) was simulated based on the data of 1328 monitoring sites and the Voronoi Neighborhood Averaging (VNA) interpolation method. The results reveal that the daily mean PM2.5 concentration reduced from 47.82 mu g/m(3) (2016) to 40.87 mu g/m(3) (2018), a reduction of 14.53%. We first calculated the heath impacts and economic benefits of this reduction (Scenario 1) by using Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program ( BenMAP). The estimated avoided premature mortalities for all-cause, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, and lung cancer were in the range of 7214 to 81,681 cases (total of 154,176 cases). The estimated economic benefits based on willingness to pay (WTP) ranged from 3.96 to 44.85 billion RMB (total of 84.66 billion RMB). Moreover, the PM2.5 concentration in the control scenario was rolled back to the Grade I standards (35 mu g/m(3), Scenario 2). The avoided deaths are in the range of 58,820 to 590,464 cases (total of 1,217,671 cases). The estimated monetary value of the avoided cases of all health endpoints range from 36.63 to 367.66 billion RMB based on WTP (total of 758.21 billion RMB). In addition, the spatial autocorrelation analysis reveals that the distribution of both avoided premature mortality and economic benefits exhibit a certain spatial aggregation. (C) 2020 Published by Elsevier B.V.