Arctic Troposphere Warming Driven by External Radiative Forcing and Modulated by the Pacific and Atlantic
Arctic Troposphere Warming Driven by External Radiative Forcing and Modulated by the Pacific and Atlantic
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DOI：
10.1029/2022jd036679
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发表时间：
2022-12
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
L. Suo;Yongqi Gao;G. Gastineau;Yu‐Chiao Liang;R. Ghosh;T. Tian;Y. Zhang;Y. Kwon;D. Matei;O. Otterå;Shuting Yang
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作者：
L. Suo;Yongqi Gao;G. Gastineau;Yu‐Chiao Liang;R. Ghosh;T. Tian;Y. Zhang;Y. Kwon;D. Matei;O. Otterå;Shuting Yang
在过去几十年中，北极经历了显著的对流层变暖，十年变暖率各不相同。然而，潜在的驱动因素和调节因素对气候变暖的相对贡献还有待进一步量化。在这里，我们利用一组独特的多模式大集合大气模拟来分离1979-2013年期间来自组合外部辐射强迫（ERF‐AL），年代际太平洋变率（IPV），大西洋多年代际变率（AMV）和北极海冰浓度变化（ASIC）的各自贡献。在本研究中，ERF-AL影响是ERF直接对大气和陆地表面的影响，不包括通过SST和SIC反馈的间接影响。ERF-AL是1979-2013年4 - 9月对流层变暖的主要驱动因素，其变暖效应在十年尺度上变化。IPV和AMV在其向正阶段的过渡期间加剧变暖，并在其向负阶段的过渡期间抑制变暖。IPV对1979-2013年气温变化趋势的影响在冬季和春季较为突出，且强于AMV。ASIC的增暖作用一般局限于700 hPa以下，且在秋冬季最强。这些因素的综合影响再现了不同年代观测到的北极变暖加速和减缓，但再现的年代际变化强度通常比观测到的要弱。
During the past decades, the Arctic has experienced significant tropospheric warming, with varying decadal warming rates. However, the relative contributions from potential drivers and modulators of the warming are yet to be further quantified. Here, we utilize a unique set of multi‐model large‐ensemble atmospheric simulations to isolate the respective contributions from the combined external radiative forcing (ERF‐AL), interdecadal Pacific variability (IPV), Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV), and Arctic sea‐ice concentration changes (ASIC) to the warming during 1979–2013. In this study, the ERF‐AL impacts are the ERF impacts directly on the atmosphere and land surface, excluding the indirect effects through SST and SIC feedback. The ERF‐AL is the primary driver of the April–September tropospheric warming during 1979–2013, and its warming effects vary at decadal time scales. The IPV and AMV intensify the warming during their transitioning periods to positive phases and dampen the warming during their transitioning periods to negative phases. The IPV impacts are prominent in winter and spring and are stronger than AMV impacts on 1979–2013 temperature trends. The warming impacts of ASIC are generally restricted to below 700 hPa and are strongest in autumn and winter. The combined effects of these factors reproduce the observed accelerated and step‐down Arctic warming in different decades, but the intensities of the reproduced decadal variations are generally weaker than in the observed.