Extinction risk predictions for the world’s flowering plants to support their conservation
Extinction risk predictions for the world’s flowering plants to support their conservation
复制标题
对世界开花植物的灭绝风险预测以支持其保护
DOI：
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发表时间：
2023
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
B. Walker
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Bachman;M. J. Brown;Tarciso C. C. Leão;E. N. Lughadha;B. Walker
70%以上的维管植物缺乏保护状况评估。我们的目标是通过使用世界维管植物清单来解决物种灭绝风险知识的不足，为大型进化支：被子植物（开花植物，约33万种）生成第一套全面的预测。我们使用贝叶斯加性回归树（BART）预测所有被子植物的灭绝风险，并使用与范围大小、人类足迹、气候和进化史相关的预测因子，并应用一种新的方法来估计单个物种水平预测的不确定性。根据我们的模型预测，我们估计45.1%的被子植物物种受到潜在威胁，下限为44.5%，上限为45.7%。我们的物种水平预测和相关的不确定性估计不能取代完整的红色名录评估，但可以用于优先预测红色名录评估的受威胁物种和快速跟踪预测非受威胁物种的最不关注评估。我们的预测和不确定性估计也可以指导野外工作，为系统的保护规划提供信息，并支持全球植物保护工作和目标。
More than 70% of all vascular plants lack conservation status assessments. We aimed to address this shortfall in knowledge of species extinction risk by using the World Checklist of Vascular Plants to generate the first comprehensive set of predictions for a large clade: angiosperms (flowering plants, ∼330,000 species). We used Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) to predict the extinction risk of all angiosperms using predictors relating to range size, human footprint, climate, and evolutionary history and applied a novel approach to estimate uncertainty of individual species level predictions. From our model predictions we estimate 45.1% of angiosperm species are potentially threatened with a lower bound of 44.5% and upper bound of 45.7%. Our species-level predictions, with associated uncertainty estimates, do not replace full Red List assessments, but can be used to prioritise predicted threatened species for full Red List assessment and fast-track predicted non-threatened species for Least Concern assessments. Our predictions and uncertainty estimates can also guide fieldwork, inform systematic conservation planning and support global plant conservation efforts and targets.