A web-based tool for eliciting probability distributions from experts
A web-based tool for eliciting probability distributions from experts
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.10.010
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发表时间：
2014-02-01
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Crowe, John A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Morris, David E.;Oakley, Jeremy E.;Crowe, John A.
我们提出了一个基于Web的概率分布启发工具：匹配不确定性启发工具。该工具旨在帮助在合适的数据不可用或稀疏的情况下，从专家那里获得关于不确定模型参数的概率分布。该工具是免费使用的，并提供了五种不同的技术来得出单变量概率分布。该工具的一个主要特点是，用户可以从不同的地点登录，观看相同的图形显示并与之互动，从而可以远程进行专家启发式会议(与电话会议或视频会议相结合)。这将使在很难亲自采访专家的情况下更容易得出概率结论。即使在远程进行启发式面试时，面试官也能够遵循良好的启发式练习，向专家提供建议，并提供即时反馈和帮助。(C)2013年提交人。由爱思唯尔有限公司出版。CC下的开放获取许可。
We present a web-based probability distribution elicitation tool: The MATCH Uncertainty Elicitation Tool. The Tool is designed to help elicit probability distributions about uncertain model parameters from experts, in situations where suitable data is either unavailable or sparse. The Tool is free to use, and offers five different techniques for eliciting univariate probability distributions. A key feature of the Tool is that users can log in from different sites and view and interact with the same graphical displays, so that expert elicitation sessions can be conducted remotely (in conjunction with tele- or videoconferencing). This will make probability elicitation easier in situations where it is difficult to interview experts in person. Even when conducting elicitation remotely, interviewers will be able to follow good elicitation practice, advise the experts, and provide instantaneous feedback and assistance. (C) 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Open access under CC BY license.