External Forcing Explains Recent Decadal Variability of the Ocean Carbon Sink
External Forcing Explains Recent Decadal Variability of the Ocean Carbon Sink
复制标题
外部强迫解释了海洋碳汇最近十年的变化
作者：
G. McKinley;A. Fay;Y. Eddebbar;L. Gloege;N. Lovenduski
海洋吸收了相当于工业时代化石碳排放量的39%，显著调节了大气二氧化碳的增长率及其对气候的相关影响。尽管海洋碳汇对气候的重要性，但我们对其年际至年代际变化原因的了解仍然有限。这阻碍了我们对它过去的行为进行归因并预测它的未来的能力。值得关注的一个关键时期是20世纪90年代，当时海洋碳汇没有像预期的那样增长。以前对这种行为的解释主要集中在海洋内部的变化或与耦合的大气/海洋模式相关的变化。在这里，我们使用一个理想化的上层海洋箱模型来说明，两个外部强迫足以解释自20世纪80年代中期以来汇变率的模式和幅度。首先，20世纪90年代全球范围内十年平均海洋碳汇的减少可归因于大气pCO 2增长率的减缓。2001年后，大气pCO 2的加速增长推动了汇的恢复。其次，全球海表温度对1991年皮纳图博火山爆发的反应解释了1990年代全球下沉的时间。这些结果是一致的，与以前的实验使用海洋后报模型与可变的大气pCO 2和气候变化和不。大气pCO 2增长率的变化直接影响到海洋汇，这意味着随着大气pCO 2对人为排放的减少作出反应，海洋碳吸收将立即减少。
The ocean has absorbed the equivalent of 39% of industrial‐age fossil carbon emissions, significantly modulating the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 and its associated impacts on climate. Despite the importance of the ocean carbon sink to climate, our understanding of the causes of its interannual‐to‐decadal variability remains limited. This hinders our ability to attribute its past behavior and project its future. A key period of interest is the 1990s, when the ocean carbon sink did not grow as expected. Previous explanations of this behavior have focused on variability internal to the ocean or associated with coupled atmosphere/ocean modes. Here, we use an idealized upper ocean box model to illustrate that two external forcings are sufficient to explain the pattern and magnitude of sink variability since the mid‐1980s. First, the global‐scale reduction in the decadal‐average ocean carbon sink in the 1990s is attributable to the slowed growth rate of atmospheric pCO2. The acceleration of atmospheric pCO2 growth after 2001 drove recovery of the sink. Second, the global sea surface temperature response to the 1991 eruption of Mt Pinatubo explains the timing of the global sink within the 1990s. These results are consistent with previous experiments using ocean hindcast models with variable atmospheric pCO2 and with and without climate variability. The fact that variability in the growth rate of atmospheric pCO2 directly imprints on the ocean sink implies that there will be an immediate reduction in ocean carbon uptake as atmospheric pCO2 responds to cuts in anthropogenic emissions.
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
T. Naegler;P. Ciais;K. Rodgers;I. Levin
通讯作者：
T. Naegler;P. Ciais;K. Rodgers;I. Levin
利用德雷克海峡时间序列了解副极地南大洋的变率和变化 <i>p</i>CO<sub>2</sub>
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Fay, Amanda R.;Lovenduski, Nicole S.;McKinley, Galen A.;Munro, David R.;Sweeney, Colm;Gray, Alison R.;Landschützer, Peter;Stephens, Britton B.;Takahashi, Taro;Williams, Nancy
通讯作者：
Williams, Nancy
影响因子：
7.3
作者：
Lovenduski, Nicole S.;Yeager, Stephen G.;Lindsay, Keith;Long, Matthew C.
通讯作者：
Long, Matthew C.