The effects of communicating uncertainty on public trust in facts and numbers
The effects of communicating uncertainty on public trust in facts and numbers
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1913678117
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发表时间：
2020-04-07
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Spiegelhalter, David J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
van der Bles, Anne Marthe;van der Linden, Sander;Spiegelhalter, David J.
不确定性是我们对世界状况的认识所固有的，但往往没有与科学事实和数字一起传达。在事实日益受到质疑的“后真相”时代，一个普遍的假设是，传播不确定性会降低公众的信任。然而，由于缺乏系统的研究，很难对这些说法进行评估。我们进行了五个实验——包括一个预先注册的全国样本复制实验和一个在BBC新闻网站上的现场实验（总共n = 5,780）——以检验在不同主题（例如，全球变暖、移民）、格式（口头vs数字）和程度（高vs低）之间传播关于事实的认知不确定性是否会影响公众信任。结果表明，尽管人们在沟通时确实感受到更大的不确定性，但我们观察到，人们对信息来源的数量和可信度的信任度只有小幅下降，而且主要是在口头不确定性沟通中。这些结果有助于让所有事实和科学的传播者放心，他们可以对人类知识的局限性更加开放和透明。
Uncertainty is inherent to our knowledge about the state of the world yet often not communicated alongside scientific facts and numbers. In the "posttruth" era where facts are increasingly contested, a common assumption is that communicating uncertainty will reduce public trust. However, a lack of systematic research makes it difficult to evaluate such claims. We conducted five experiments-including one preregistered replication with a national sample and one field experiment on the BBC News website (total n = 5,780)-to examine whether communicating epistemic uncertainty about facts across different topics (e.g., global warming, immigration), formats (verbal vs. numeric), and magnitudes (high vs. low) influences public trust. Results show that whereas people do perceive greater uncertainty when it is communicated, we observed only a small decrease in trust in numbers and trustworthiness of the source, and mostly for verbal uncertainty communication. These results could help reassure all communicators of facts and science that they can be more open and transparent about the limits of human knowledge.