Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change
Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1222475110
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发表时间：
2014-03-04
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Wisser, Dominik
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Haddeland, Ingjerd;Heinke, Jens;Wisser, Dominik
人类直接改变水循环的动力学，通过建造水坝蓄水，并通过工业，农业或家庭目的的取水。预计气候变化还将影响水的供应和需求。在这里，分析气候变化和人类对陆地水循环的直接影响，并使用多模式方法进行比较。七个全球水文模型被迫进行多项气候预测，并考虑或不考虑人类干预的影响，如水坝和取水对水文循环的影响。对不同程度的全球变暖的模型结果进行了分析，以便根据减缓气候变化的温度目标进行分析。结果表明，人类活动对我国部分地区水循环的直接影响主要表现在：例如，在一个实施例中，亚洲部分地区和美国西部地区的影响程度相同，甚至超过了适度全球变暖（+2 K）的预期影响。尽管在模型预测中存在一些差异，但灌溉用水量通常会随着全球平均气温的升高而增加。南亚和东亚部分地区的灌溉用水短缺问题特别严重，预计今后会变得更严重。
Humans directly change the dynamics of the water cycle through dams constructed for water storage, and through water withdrawals for industrial, agricultural, or domestic purposes. Climate change is expected to additionally affect water supply and demand. Here, analyses of climate change and direct human impacts on the terrestrial water cycle are presented and compared using a multimodel approach. Seven global hydrological models have been forced with multiple climate projections, and with and without taking into account impacts of human interventions such as dams and water withdrawals on the hydrological cycle. Model results are analyzed for different levels of global warming, allowing for analyses in line with temperature targets for climate change mitigation. The results indicate that direct human impacts on the water cycle in some regions, e. g., parts of Asia and in the western United States, are of the same order of magnitude, or even exceed impacts to be expected for moderate levels of global warming (+2 K). Despite some spread in model projections, irrigation water consumption is generally projected to increase with higher global mean temperatures. Irrigation water scarcity is particularly large in parts of southern and eastern Asia, and is expected to become even larger in the future.