Recent disruptions in the timing and intensity of precipitation in Calakmul, Mexico
Recent disruptions in the timing and intensity of precipitation in Calakmul, Mexico
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DOI：
10.1007/s00704-019-03068-4
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发表时间：
2019-12
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Sofía Mardero;B. Schmook;Zachary Christman;S. Metcalfe;Betsabé de la Barreda-Bautista
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Sofía Mardero;B. Schmook;Zachary Christman;S. Metcalfe;Betsabé de la Barreda-Bautista
这项研究探讨了1982年至2016年墨西哥卡拉克穆尔周围三个气象站降水时间和强度的变化，这是一个平衡生物多样性保护和小农农业生产的景观。使用了五种方法来评估降水量的变化：年度和雨季趋势的Mann-Kendall检验;确定雨季开始的模糊逻辑方法;评估降水量时间分布的基尼指数和降水集中指数;评估降水强度的简单降水强度指数;以及降雨量异常指数（RAI），用以确定与长期平均值相比降雨量的不足或过剩。总的来说，这一时期卡拉克穆尔的降雨趋势表明略有增加，但指数（基尼系数、SDII、PCI）的结果都表明，全年降雨量变得更大，分布更不均匀。降雨的开始日期或RAI整体上没有明显的趋势，尽管2004年至2016年有更明显的波峰和波谷。更高的年际变化和更明显的降雨量异常，无论是积极的还是消极的，表明在卡拉克穆尔地区的降雨量已经变得更加极端。这项研究为当地的管理和生计战略提供了信息，并为分析全球热带景观中季节性降水事件的区域模式提供了见解。
This study addresses changes in the timing and intensity of precipitation from 1982 to 2016 from three meteorological stations around Calakmul, Mexico, a landscape balancing biodiversity conservation and smallholder agricultural production. Five methods were used to assess changes in precipitation: the Mann-Kendall test of annual and wet season trends; a fuzzy-logic approach to determine the onset of the rainy season; the Gini Index and Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) to evaluate the temporal distribution of precipitation; Simple Precipitation Intensity Index (SDII) to evaluate precipitation intensity; and the Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI) to identify the deficit or surplus of rainfall compared with the long-term mean. Overall, rainfall trends in Calakmul over this period indicate a slight increase, though results of the indices (Gini, SDII, PCI) all indicate that rainfall has become more intense and more unevenly distributed throughout the year. There was no significant trend in the onset date of rainfall or the RAI overall, though there were more pronounced crests and troughs from 2004 to 2016. Higher interannual variability and more pronounced rainfall anomalies, both positive and negative, suggest that rainfall in the Calakmul region has become more extreme. This research informs for management and livelihood strategies in the local region and offers insights for analyses of regional patterns of seasonal precipitation events in tropical landscapes worldwide.