Interest rate variability and economic performance: some international evidence
Interest rate variability and economic performance: some international evidence
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利率波动与经济表现：一些国际证据
DOI：
10.1080/00036849200000117
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发表时间：
1992
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
M. Kandil
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Kandil
他的论文利用一大批主要工业化国家的短期和长期利率数据，研究了利率波动对这些国家实际产出和价格水平的周期性行为的影响。理论预测，由于不确定性水平的上升，利率的变异性增加，对需求和供应的产出产生负面影响，进而对价格水平产生模糊影响。总的来说，经验证据与这一预测是一致的。接下来，调查试图阐明利率波动背后的主要不确定性来源。重点关注货币增长、汇率和能源价格的可变性。本文提供了一些证据，说明这些不确定因素对利率变化的相对贡献，进而对各国实际产出和价格水平的周期性行为的影响。
Using data for short-term and long-term interest rates across a major group of industrial countries, his paper studies the impact of interest rate variability on the cyclical behaviour of real output and the price level in these countries. Theory predicts that the increased variability of the interest rate stemming from a rise in the level of uncertainty has a negaive impact on he ouput demanded and supplied and, in turn, an ambiguous impact on the price level. The empirical evidence is, generally, consistent with this prediction. Next the investigation attempts to shed some light on major sources of uncertainty underlying the interest rate variability. Focus in on he variability of monetary growth, the exchange rate and the energy price. Some evidence on he relative contribution of these sources of uncertainty of the variability of the interest rate and, in turn, to the cyclical behaviour of real output and the price level across countries is provided.