Biotic and anthropogenic forces rival climatic/abiotic factors in determining global plant population growth and fitness
Biotic and anthropogenic forces rival climatic/abiotic factors in determining global plant population growth and fitness
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1918363117
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发表时间：
2020-01-14
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Louthan, Allison M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Morris, William F.;Ehrlen, Johan;Louthan, Allison M.
气候/非生物因素、相互作用的物种和直接的人类影响等多种同时发生的环境变化正在影响自然种群，从而影响生物多样性、生态系统服务和进化轨迹。确定非生物、生物和人为驱动因素对种群的影响程度是否不同，考虑它们的直接影响和通过其他驱动因素介导的影响，将使我们能够更好地预测种群命运和设计减缓战略。我们从陆生植物人口统计学研究中确定的驱动因素的高水平和低水平中汇编了644对人口增长率（A）的配对值。在非生物驱动因子、自然干扰（非气候）和生物驱动因子中，与邻近植物的相互作用对A.然而，当驱动因素组合成3个主要类型时，它们对A的平均影响没有差异。对于测量驱动因素的平均值和变异性的研究子集，A对非生物驱动因素相对于生物驱动因素的1 SD变化稍微更敏感，但对生物驱动因素的敏感性仍然很大。非生物/生物/人为驱动因素的影响程度相似，适用于不同生长形式的植物、不同纬度带以及非生物条件较恶劣或较温和的生物群落，这表明所有3种驱动因素在各种背景下具有同等影响。因此，在预测种群和生物多样性对环境变化的生态和进化反应时，关于驱动因素对所有人口增长率的综合影响的现有最佳信息没有理由忽视这三类驱动因素中的任何一种。
Multiple, simultaneous environmental changes, in climatic/abiotic factors, interacting species, and direct human influences, are impacting natural populations and thus biodiversity, ecosystem services, and evolutionary trajectories. Determining whether the magnitudes of the population impacts of abiotic, biotic, and anthropogenic drivers differ, accounting for their direct effects and effects mediated through other drivers, would allow us to better predict population fates and design mitigation strategies. We compiled 644 paired values of the population growth rate (A) from high and low levels of an identified driver from demographic studies of terrestrial plants. Among abiotic drivers, natural disturbance (not climate), and among biotic drivers, interactions with neighboring plants had the strongest effects on A. However, when drivers were combined into the 3 main types, their average effects on A did not differ. For the subset of studies that measured both the average and variability of the driver, A was marginally more sensitive to 1 SD of change in abiotic drivers relative to biotic drivers, but sensitivity to biotic drivers was still substantial. Similar impact magnitudes for abiotic/biotic/anthropogenic drivers hold for plants of different growth forms, for different latitudinal zones, and for biomes characterized by harsher or milder abiotic conditions, suggesting that all 3 drivers have equivalent impacts across a variety of contexts. Thus, the best available information about the integrated effects of drivers on all demographic rates provides no justification for ignoring drivers of any of these 3 types when projecting ecological and evolutionary responses of populations and of biodiversity to environmental changes.