Micro Risks and Pareto Improving Policies with Low Interest Rates
Micro Risks and Pareto Improving Policies with Low Interest Rates
复制标题
微观风险与低利率帕累托改进政策
DOI：
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
C. Arellano
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Mark Aguiar;M. Amador;C. Arellano
当政府债券的无风险利率低于经济增长率时，我们为帕累托改进的财政政策的可行性提供了充分的条件。我们在Bewley-Huggett-Aiyagari开创的不完全市场模型中这样做，但我们允许在偏好和收入风险方面存在任意数量的事前异质性。我们既考虑了动态无效率的情况，也考虑了更合理的动态效率的情况。关键的条件是政府债券筹集的铸币税收入超过利率的增加乘以初始资本存量。帕累托改进的财政政策弱扩张每个代理人的预算设置在每个时间点。这些政策改善了风险分担，并有可能引导经济达到更有效的资本水平。在模拟中，我们发现，政府必须依赖适度的债务发行水平沿着过渡到新的稳定状态。
We provide sufficient conditions for the feasibility of a Pareto-improving fiscal policy when the risk-free interest rate on government bonds is below the growth rate. We do so in the class of incomplete markets models pioneered by Bewley-Huggett-Aiyagari, but we allow for an arbitrary amount of ex ante heterogeneity in terms of preferences and income risk. We consider both the case of dynamic inefficiency as well as the more plausible case of dynamic efficiency. The key condition is that seigniorage revenue raised by government bonds exceeds the increase in the interest rate times the initial capital stock. The Pareto improving fiscal policies weakly expand every agent’s budget set at every point in time. The policies improve risk sharing and potentially guide the economy to a more efficient level of capital. In simulations, we find that the government must rely on moderate levels of debt issuance along the transition to the new steady state.