Forecasting the need for medical specialists in Spain: application of a system dynamics model.
Forecasting the need for medical specialists in Spain: application of a system dynamics model.
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DOI：
10.1186/1478-4491-8-24
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发表时间：
2010-10-29
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
López-Valcárcel BG
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Barber P;López-Valcárcel BG
西班牙在短短几年内就从医生过剩变成了医生短缺。卫生专业人员的中长期规划已成为卫生当局的高度优先事项。我们利用系统动力学建立了43个医学专业的供需/需求模拟模型。该模型包括人口、教育和劳动力市场变量。定义了几个场景。健康规划人员可以将可控制的变量设置为参数来模拟不同的场景。该模型计算供给和赤字或盈余。专家们用德尔菲法确定每1000名居民所需专家的比例。在人口适度增长的基线模型情景下，医疗专家的缺口将从目前的2%（2800名专家）增长到2025年的14.3%（近21 000名）。中期短缺最严重的专业是麻醉学、骨科和创伤外科、儿科外科、整形美容和修复外科、家庭和社区医学、儿科、放射学和泌尿外科。该模型表明有必要增加医学院录取的学生人数。应重新设计培训日程，以促进各专业之间的流动性。与此同时，来自欧盟新成员国和拉丁美洲的医生移民填补了短期内更灵活的供应需求。
Spain has gone from a surplus to a shortage of medical doctors in very few years. Medium and long-term planning for health professionals has become a high priority for health authorities. We created a supply and demand/need simulation model for 43 medical specialties using system dynamics. The model includes demographic, education and labour market variables. Several scenarios were defined. Variables controllable by health planners can be set as parameters to simulate different scenarios. The model calculates the supply and the deficit or surplus. Experts set the ratio of specialists needed per 1000 inhabitants with a Delphi method. In the scenario of the baseline model with moderate population growth, the deficit of medical specialists will grow from 2% at present (2800 specialists) to 14.3% in 2025 (almost 21 000). The specialties with the greatest medium-term shortages are Anesthesiology, Orthopedic and Traumatic Surgery, Pediatric Surgery, Plastic Aesthetic and Reparatory Surgery, Family and Community Medicine, Pediatrics, Radiology, and Urology. The model suggests the need to increase the number of students admitted to medical school. Training itineraries should be redesigned to facilitate mobility among specialties. In the meantime, the need to make more flexible the supply in the short term is being filled by the immigration of physicians from new members of the European Union and from Latin America.
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影响因子：
4.5
作者：
Gupta, Neeru;Dal Poz, Mario R
通讯作者：
Dal Poz, Mario R
影响因子：
1.7
作者：
Dubois, Carl-Ardy;Mckee, Martin
通讯作者：
Mckee, Martin
影响因子：
--
作者：
Deal, Chad L.;Hooker, Roderick;Barr, Walter
通讯作者：
Barr, Walter
影响因子：
120.7
作者：
Goodman, DC;Fisher, ES;Wennberg, JE
通讯作者：
Wennberg, JE
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
González-Busto, B;García, R
通讯作者：
García, R