Controlling for unmeasured confounding and spatial misalignment in long-term air pollution and health studies.
Controlling for unmeasured confounding and spatial misalignment in long-term air pollution and health studies.
复制标题
在长期空气污染和健康研究中控制未衡量的混杂和空间未对准。
DOI：
10.1002/env.2348
复制
发表时间：
2015-11
期刊：
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Sarran C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lee D;Sarran C
长期暴露于空气污染对健康的影响现在通常使用空间生态研究来估计，这是由于最近空间参考污染和疾病数据的广泛可用性。然而，这种面积单位研究设计提出了一些统计挑战，如果忽视这些挑战，就有可能使估计的污染-健康关系产生偏差。一个这样的挑战是如何控制空间自相关存在于数据中的已知协变量后，这是由未测量的混杂。第二个挑战是如何调整模型的函数形式，以解释污染和疾病数据之间的空间不一致，这会导致污染数据的区域内变化。在现有的长期空间空气污染和健康研究中，这些挑战在很大程度上被忽视了，因此在这里，我们提出了一种新的贝叶斯分层模型，可以解决这两个挑战，并提供软件，允许其他人将我们的模型应用于他们自己的数据。该模型的有效性通过模拟与文献中提出的一些最先进的替代方案进行比较，然后用于估计2010年英格兰地方当局一项新的流行病学研究中二氧化氮和颗粒物浓度对呼吸道住院的影响。© 2015作者。出版社：John Wiley & Sons Ltd
The health impact of long‐term exposure to air pollution is now routinely estimated using spatial ecological studies, owing to the recent widespread availability of spatial referenced pollution and disease data. However, this areal unit study design presents a number of statistical challenges, which if ignored have the potential to bias the estimated pollution–health relationship. One such challenge is how to control for the spatial autocorrelation present in the data after accounting for the known covariates, which is caused by unmeasured confounding. A second challenge is how to adjust the functional form of the model to account for the spatial misalignment between the pollution and disease data, which causes within‐area variation in the pollution data. These challenges have largely been ignored in existing long‐term spatial air pollution and health studies, so here we propose a novel Bayesian hierarchical model that addresses both challenges and provide software to allow others to apply our model to their own data. The effectiveness of the proposed model is compared by simulation against a number of state‐of‐the‐art alternatives proposed in the literature and is then used to estimate the impact of nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter concentrations on respiratory hospital admissions in a new epidemiological study in England in 2010 at the local authority level. © 2015 The Authors. Environmetrics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.