Observational estimate of climate sensitivity from changes in the rate of ocean heat uptake and comparison to CMIP5 models
Observational estimate of climate sensitivity from changes in the rate of ocean heat uptake and comparison to CMIP5 models
复制标题
根据海洋吸热率变化对气候敏感性的观测估计以及与 CMIP5 模型的比较
作者：
T. Masters
气候敏感性是根据20世纪下半叶和21世纪前十年的0-2,000立方米海洋热含量和表面温度观测结果估计的，使用一个简单的能量平衡模型和海洋热吸收速率的变化来确定这一时间段的辐射恢复强度。利用耦合模式比较项目第五阶段(CMIP5)的32个模式配置的集合，研究了这种30-50年辐射恢复强度和较长期有效灵敏度之间的关系，表明两者之间存在很强的相关性。在此期间，CMIP5成员的平均辐射恢复强度为1.16Wm−2K−1，相比之下，来自观测的辐射恢复强度为2.05Wm−2K−1。这表明这些CMIP5模式中的温度可能对辐射强迫中的扰动过于敏感，尽管这取决于现代时期人为气溶胶强迫的实际大小。还考虑了辐射恢复强度在较长时间尺度上的潜在变化，导致平衡气候敏感性的可能(67%)范围为1.5-2.9K，90%的可信区间为1.2-5.1K。
Climate sensitivity is estimated based on 0–2,000 m ocean heat content and surface temperature observations from the second half of the 20th century and first decade of the 21st century, using a simple energy balance model and the change in the rate of ocean heat uptake to determine the radiative restoration strength over this time period. The relationship between this 30–50 year radiative restoration strength and longer term effective sensitivity is investigated using an ensemble of 32 model configurations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), suggesting a strong correlation between the two. The mean radiative restoration strength over this period for the CMIP5 members examined is 1.16 Wm−2K−1, compared to 2.05 Wm−2K−1 from the observations. This suggests that temperature in these CMIP5 models may be too sensitive to perturbations in radiative forcing, although this depends on the actual magnitude of the anthropogenic aerosol forcing in the modern period. The potential change in the radiative restoration strength over longer timescales is also considered, resulting in a likely (67 %) range of 1.5–2.9 K for equilibrium climate sensitivity, and a 90 % confidence interval of 1.2–5.1 K.
用过去限制未来：古记录如何改进对全球变暖的估计
DOI：
10.1177/0309133307083295
发表时间：
2016
期刊：
Earth and Environment
影响因子：
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作者：
Edwards T
通讯作者：
Edwards T