Accountable for what? Regime types, performance, and the fate of outgoing dictators, 1946–2004
Accountable for what? Regime types, performance, and the fate of outgoing dictators, 1946–2004
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1946-2004 年政权类型、表现和即将卸任的独裁者的命运负责什么？
DOI：
10.1080/13510347.2013.738866
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Abel Escribà
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Abel Escribà
对于一些政治领导人来说，失去权力可能意味着比被取代更进一步的惩罚。在1946年至2004年期间，47%的独裁者因失去权力而被监禁、杀害或流亡。这种惩罚发生的可能性可以塑造和制约当今统治者所做的决定。这篇文章探讨了可能影响即将卸任的独裁者命运的因素。我发现，政权类型在很大程度上决定了统治者的命运，因为政权塑造了内部动力和激励机制，并决定性地影响了统治者被取代的方式。由于缺乏正规化的继承程序，权力集中和基于庇护的忠诚，个人主义领导人比其他独裁者更有可能被杀害，并在离开后流亡。军事和个人主义领导人也比一党制的君主或统治者更有可能被监禁。如果被民主所取代，政党和军事政权的统治者比个人主义者更有可能不受惩罚。研究还发现，表现对于解释统治者失去权力后发生的事情很重要。经济危机和失败增加了独裁统治者入狱的可能性。
For some political leaders losing power might entail further punishment than just being replaced. During the period 1946–2004, 47% of dictators have been jailed, killed, or had to go into exile as a consequence of losing power. The possibility that such punishment occurs can shape and condition present-time decisions rulers make. This article investigates the factors which may affect the fate of outgoing dictators. I find that regime types determine, to a high extent, the fate of rulers as regimes shape internal dynamics and incentives and decisively affect the way rulers are replaced. Due to the lack of regularized succession procedures and to the concentration of power and patronage-based loyalty, personalist leaders are more likely to be killed and to go into exile upon their exit than other autocrats. Military and personalist leaders are also more likely to be imprisoned than monarchs or rulers of single-party regimes. If replaced by democracies, rulers of party and military regimes have a much higher likelihood of not being punished than personalists. It is also found that performance matters for explaining what happens to rulers after the loss of power. Economic crises and defeats increase the likelihood that an authoritarian ruler is imprisoned.