Tracking mortality in near to real time provides essential information about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa in 2020
Tracking mortality in near to real time provides essential information about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa in 2020
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DOI：
10.7196/samj.2021.v111i8.15809
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发表时间：
2021-08-01
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Groenewald, P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bradshaw, D.;Dorrington, R. E.;Groenewald, P.
背景对大多数国家来说，及时准确地估计COVID-19对死亡率的影响是一项挑战，但对南非（SA）来说，从死亡原因分析来看是不可能的。量化2020年南非COVID-19的超额死亡人数和可能规模，并得出2021年疫情监测的结论。每周向南非医学研究理事会提供内政部在国家人口登记册上登记的死亡基本细节。对每周死亡人数进行了调整，以考虑到未在人口登记册上登记以及在多哈登记死亡的时间较晚。将每周死亡人数与根据霍尔特-温特斯对各省和大城市地区过去死亡人数的时间序列分析预测的人数进行比较。以预测死亡数为基线，计算全因死亡和自然死亡的超额死亡数。此外，对自然死亡的基线进行了调整，以考虑到封锁导致的自然死亡下降。我们估计，在2020年期间，1岁以上的人中有55万多人死亡，比大流行前预测的48000人高出13%。每周自然死亡人数的明显增加在7月中旬达到顶峰，所有年龄段都是如此，
Background. Producing timely and accurate estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on mortality is challenging for most countries, but impossible for South Africa (SA) from cause-of-death statistics.Objectives. To quantify the excess deaths and likely magnitude of COVID-19 in SA in 2020 and draw conclusions on monitoring the epidemic in 2021.Methods. Basic details of deaths registered on the National Population Register by the Department of Home Affairs (DOHA) are provided to the South African Medical Research Council weekly. Adjustments are made to the numbers of weekly deaths to account for non-registration on the population register, as well as late registration of death with the DOHA. The weekly number of deaths is compared with the number predicted based on the Holt-Winters time-series analysis of past deaths for provinces and metropolitan areas. Excess deaths were calculated for all-causes deaths and natural deaths, using the predicted deaths as a baseline. In addition, an adjustment was made to the baseline for natural deaths to account for the drop in natural deaths due to lockdown.Results. We estimated that just over 550 000 deaths occurred among persons aged >= 1 year during 2020, 13% higher than the 48 000 predicted before the pandemic. A pronounced increase in weekly deaths from natural causes peaked in the middle of July across all ages except