Prediction of unprecedented biological shifts in the global ocean
Prediction of unprecedented biological shifts in the global ocean
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-019-0420-1
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发表时间：
2019-03-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Edwards, M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Beaugrand, G.;Conversi, A.;Edwards, M.
无常是一个生态学原则（1），但有时变化会以非线性的方式发生，如突然的社区转变（ACS），改变生态系统状态及其提供的商品和服务（2）。在这里，我们提出了一个基于生态位理论（3）的模型来解释和预测全球范围内的ACS。我们测试我们的模型使用14个多年代际的时间序列海洋后生动物从浮游动物到鱼类，跨越所有纬度和大陆架的公海。预测的波动和观测到的波动是一致的，这两种波动都是在1980年代末（4-7）和1990年代末（5、8）确定的。我们发现，这些ACS与气候变化相吻合，改变当地的热制度，这反过来又与物种的热生态位相互作用，引发长期的，有时突然的变化，在社区层面。预计2014年后将出现一场规模和范围都前所未有的大规模ACS，与强烈的厄尔尼诺事件和北方气候的重大变化相吻合。我们的研究结果强调了北冰洋的敏感性，前所未有的融化可能会重组生物群落（5，9），并表明在变暖的世界中ACS事件的规模和后果会增加。
Impermanence is an ecological principle(1) but there are times when changes occur nonlinearly as abrupt community shifts (ACSs) that transform the ecosystem state and the goods and services it provides(2). Here, we present a model based on niche theory(3) to explain and predict ACSs at the global scale. We test our model using 14 multi-decadal time series of marine metazoans from zooplankton to fish, spanning all latitudes and the shelf to the open ocean. Predicted and observed fluctuations correspond, with both identifying ACSs at the end of the 1980s(4-7) and 1990s(5,8). We show that these ACSs coincide with changes in climate that alter local thermal regimes, which in turn interact with the thermal niche of species to trigger long-term and sometimes abrupt shifts at the community level. A large-scale ACS is predicted after 2014-unprecedented in magnitude and extent-coinciding with a strong El Nino event and major shifts in Northern Hemisphere climate. Our results underline the sensitivity of the Arctic Ocean, where unprecedented melting may reorganize biological communities(5,9), and suggest an increase in the size and consequences of ACS events in a warming world.