Effects of precipitation, heat, and drought on incidence and expansion of coccidioidomycosis in western USA: a longitudinal surveillance study.
Effects of precipitation, heat, and drought on incidence and expansion of coccidioidomycosis in western USA: a longitudinal surveillance study.
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美国西部的降水，热和干旱对球虫菌病的发病率和扩展的影响：一项纵向监视研究。
DOI：
10.1016/s2542-5196(22)00202-9
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发表时间：
2022-10
影响因子：
25.7
通讯作者：
Remais, Justin, V
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Head, Jennifer R.;Sondermeyer-Cooksey, Gail;Heaney, Alexandra K.;Yu, Alexander T.;Jones, Isabel;Bhattachan, Abinash;Campo, Simon K.;Wagner, Robert;Mgbara, Whitney;Phillips, Sophie;Keeney, Nicole;Taylor, John;Eisen, Ellen;Lettenmaier, Dennis P.;Hubbard, Alan;Okin, Gregory S.;Vugia, Duc J.;Jain, Seema;Remais, Justin, V
干旱是传染病动态的一个未得到充分研究的驱动因素。在北美西南部正在进行的大规模干旱中，加州正在经历自公元800年以来最干旱的几十年期，温度加剧了这一过程。我们研究了干旱对球孢子菌病的影响，球孢子菌病是美国西南部一种新出现的传染病。我们分析了2000-2020年加州人口普查区一级的监测数据，使用广义加性模型和降水和温度的月度滞后分布。然后，我们开发了一个集合预测算法的事件的情况下，每个人口普查区估计的反事实发生率，将发生在没有干旱。在2007-2009年和2012-2015年干旱之后的两年里，加州分别观察到了1，467和2，649起可归因于干旱的案例，超过了干旱期间经历的下降。夏季温度的四分位距（IQR）增加与秋季发病率增加2.02倍（95%CI：1.84，2.22）相关，冬季降水量的IQR增加与秋季发病率增加1.45倍（95%CI：1.36，1.55）相关。冬季降水的影响是36%（95%CI：25，48%）强之前，两个干燥，而不是平均，冬天。干旱县的发病率对降水波动最为敏感，而湿润县的发病率对温度最为敏感。在加州，多年周期的干燥条件和潮湿的冬季放大了传播，特别是在历史上较潮湿的地区。随着美国西南部干旱频率的增加，可以预期球孢子菌病的继续扩大，沿着有更强烈的季节。
Drought is an understudied driver of infectious disease dynamics. Amidst the ongoing southwestern North American megadrought, California is experiencing the driest multi-decadal period since 800CE, exacerbated by temperature. We examined the influence of drought on coccidioidomycosis, an emerging infectious disease in the southwestern U.S. We analyzed California census tract-level surveillance data from 2000–2020 using generalized additive models and distributed monthly lags on precipitation and temperature. We then developed an ensemble prediction algorithm of incident cases per census tract to estimate the counterfactual incidence that would have occurred in the absence of drought. An estimated excess of 1,467 and 2,649 drought-attributable cases were observed in California in the two years following the 2007–2009 and 2012–2015 droughts, respectively, more than offsetting declines experienced during drought. An interquartile range (IQR) increase in summer temperatures was associated with 2.02 (95% CI: 1.84, 2.22) times higher incidence in the following fall, and a one IQR increase in precipitation in the winter was associated with 1.45 (95% CI: 1.36, 1.55) times higher incidence in the fall. The effect of winter precipitation was 36% (95% CI: 25, 48%) stronger when preceded by two dry, rather than average, winters. Incidence in arid counties was most sensitive to precipitation fluctuations, while incidence in wetter counties was most sensitive to temperature. In California, multiyear cycles of dry conditions followed by a wet winter amplifies transmission, especially in historically wetter areas. With anticipated increasing frequency of drought in southwestern U.S., continued expansion of coccidioidomycosis, along with more intense seasons, may be expected.