Applying Occam's razor to global agricultural land use change
Applying Occam's razor to global agricultural land use change
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.10.015
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发表时间：
2016-01-01
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Arneth, Almut
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Engstrom, Kerstin;Rounsevell, Mark D. A.;Arneth, Almut
我们提出了一个简约的农业土地利用模型，该模型旨在复制全球土地利用变化，同时允许探索输入参数中的不确定性。在全球范围内，模拟的农业土地利用变化的不确定性范围涵盖了观测到的土地利用变化。该模型较好地模拟了县级耕地变化的空间格局，但较好地再现了农业大国耕地变化的时间趋势。基于方差的全球敏感性分析表明，代表消费偏好的输入参数的不确定性对全球农业领域的变化很重要。然而，技术变革的不确定性对谷物产量和全球农业面积变化的影响最大。与发展中国家技术变化有关的不确定性对于模拟农田面积是最重要的。该模型的表现表明，高度概括的社会经济过程可以用来复制全球土地利用变化。(C)2015年提交人。由爱思唯尔有限公司出版。这是一篇在CC by License(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).下的开放获取文章
We present a parsimonious agricultural land-use model that is designed to replicate global land-use change while allowing the exploration of uncertainties in input parameters. At the global scale, the modelled uncertainty range of agricultural land-use change covers observed land-use change. Spatial patterns of cropland change at the country level are simulated less satisfactorily, but temporal trends of cropland change in large agricultural nations were replicated by the model. A variance-based global sensitivity analysis showed that uncertainties in the input parameters representing to consumption preferences are important for changes in global agricultural areas. However, uncertainties in technological change had the largest effect on cereal yields and changes in global agricultural area. Uncertainties related to technological change in developing countries were most important for modelling the extent of cropland. The performance of the model suggests that highly generalised representations of socioeconomic processes can be used to replicate global land-use change. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).