Climate Econometrics
Climate Econometrics
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DOI：
10.3386/w22181
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发表时间：
2016-04
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
S. Hsiang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Hsiang
确定气候对社会的影响对于理解历史经济发展、设计应对气候事件的现代政策以及管理未来的全球气候变化至关重要。在这里，我回顾，综合和解释最近的进展，用于衡量气候对社会和经济成果的影响的方法。由于天气变化在最近的进展中发挥了很大的作用，我从计量经济学的角度正式气候和天气之间的关系，并讨论其使用识别变化，突出在不同的研究设计和推导条件的关键假设之间的权衡时，天气变化准确识别气候的影响。然后，我描述了近年来的进展，如从社会角度的气候变量的参数化，空间和时间位移的非线性模型，表征不确定性，适应措施，交叉研究比较，并使用经验估计来预测未来气候变化的影响。最后，我将讨论剩余的方法挑战。
Identifying the effect of climate on societies is central to understanding historical economic development, designing modern policies that react to climatic events, and managing future global climate change. Here, I review, synthesize, and interpret recent advances in methods used to measure effects of climate on social and economic outcomes. Because weather variation plays a large role in recent progress, I formalize the relationship between climate and weather from an econometric perspective and discuss their use as identifying variation, highlighting tradeoffs between key assumptions in different research designs and deriving conditions when weather variation exactly identifies the effects of climate. I then describe advances in recent years, such as parameterization of climate variables from a social perspective, nonlinear models with spatial and temporal displacement, characterizing uncertainty, measurement of adaptation, cross-study comparison, and use of empirical estimates to project the impact of future climate change. I conclude by discussing remaining methodological challenges.