Revisiting the association between sea surface temperature and the epidemiology of fish poisoning in the South Pacific: Reassessing the link between ciguatera and climate change
Revisiting the association between sea surface temperature and the epidemiology of fish poisoning in the South Pacific: Reassessing the link between ciguatera and climate change
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DOI：
10.1016/j.toxicon.2009.08.011
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发表时间：
2010-10-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Llewellyn, Lyndon E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Llewellyn, Lyndon E.
太平洋共同体秘书处的南太平洋流行病学和健康信息服务处（SPEHIS）编制了关于雪卡毒素强度的最详细数据集。先前对SPEHIS鱼类中毒数据库进行了分析，得出了几个国家的南方涛动指数（SOI）与雪卡中毒病例数之间的统计显著相关性，这引起了人们对这种痛苦会随着海洋变暖而增加的担忧。对SPEHIS记录和其他数据的映射表明，雪卡毒素不仅局限于温暖的水域，而且印度太平洋暖池（Indo-Pacific warm Pool）可能会抑制雪卡毒素的流行，该暖池是一年中大部分时间保持高温的水体。在选定的南太平洋国家专属经济区内，对雪卡强度和海表温度（SST）行为的定性评估支持了当海表温度介于上限和下限之间时雪卡强度最高的观点。除了SOI之外，现在还有更多的气候和海温指数，包括一些测量上述海洋暖池现象的指数。SPEHIS数据集的年雪毒病例率时间序列与太平洋暖池指数和几个ENSO相关指数之间存在显著的正相关和负相关，这些指数在雪毒时间序列之前已经滞后了2年。这进一步支持了这样一种可能性，即在考虑气候变化对雪茄烟的影响时，人们必须考虑两个阈值，即在足够长的时间内保持足够温暖的水可能导致雪茄烟，而在足够长的时间内水保持太热可能会降低雪茄烟的发病率。这种模式将使气候变化对雪加特纳影响的预估复杂化，超出了海温增加可能导致雪加特纳增加的简单关系。爱思唯尔有限公司2009年版权所有版权所有。
The most detailed dataset of ciguatera intensity is that produced by the South Pacific Epidemiological and Health Information Service (SPEHIS) of the Secretariat of the Pacific Community. The SPEHIS fish poisoning database has been previously analysed yielding statistically significant correlations between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and ciguatera case numbers in several countries raising concerns this affliction will increase as oceans warm. Mapping of the SPEHIS records and other data hints at ciguatera not only being restricted to warm waters but that the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool, a body of water that remains hot throughout much of the year, may inhibit ciguatera prevalence. A qualitative assessment of ciguatera intensity and sea surface temperature (SST) behaviour within the EEZ of selected South Pacific nations supported the notion that ciguatera intensity was highest when SST was between an upper and lower limit. Many more climate and SST indices beyond the SOI are now available, including some that measure the above-mentioned phenomenon of oceanic warm pools. Statistically significant, positive and negative cross-correlations were obtained between time series of annual ciguatera case rates from the SPEHIS dataset and the Pacific Warm Pool Index and several ENSO related indices which had been lagged for up to 2 years before the ciguatera time series. This further supports the possibility that when considering the impact of climate change on ciguatera, one has to consider two thresholds, namely waters that remain warm enough for a long enough period can lead to ciguatera and that extended periods where the water remains too hot may depress ciguatera case rates. Such a model would complicate projections of the effects of climate change upon ciguatera beyond that of a simple relationship where increased SST may cause more ciguatera. Crown Copyright (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.