Predictability of Rogue Events
Predictability of Rogue Events
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DOI：
10.1103/physrevlett.114.213901
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发表时间：
2015-05-28
影响因子：
8.6
通讯作者：
Steinmeyer, Guenter
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Birkholz, Simon;Bree, Carsten;Steinmeyer, Guenter
利用三种不同的异常浪支撑系统的实验数据，用非线性时间序列分析的方法评估了潜在动力学的确定性和可预测性。在我们的分析中，我们包括了来自北海Draupner平台的原始记录以及来自两个光学系统的时间序列。后者是在光纤超连续体的红外尾迹中测量的，另一个是在多丝的通量剖面中测量的。所有三个数据集都显示出极值统计，并且超过各自系统中的有效波高的系数大于2。非线性时间序列分析表明系统具有不同程度的确定性。光纤场景被发现是由量子噪声驱动的，而异常波的出现是其他场景湍流的结果。利用在多丝系统中观测到的大量异常事件，我们可以系统地探索湍流系统中此类事件的可预测性。我们观察到，流氓事件并不一定是毫无预兆地出现的，但在发生之前往往有一个相对秩序的短暂阶段。这一惊人的发现让我们对异常涌浪这一令人着迷的现象有了新的认识。
Using experimental data from three different rogue wave supporting systems, determinism, and predictability of the underlying dynamics are evaluated with methods of nonlinear time series analysis. We included original records from the Draupner platform in the North Sea as well as time series from two optical systems in our analysis. One of the latter was measured in the infrared tail of optical fiber supercontinua, the other in the fluence profiles of multifilaments. All three data sets exhibit extreme-value statistics and exceed the significant wave height in the respective system by a factor larger than 2. Nonlinear time series analysis indicates a different degree of determinism in the systems. The optical fiber scenario is found to be driven by quantum noise whereas rogue waves emerge as a consequence of turbulence in the others. With the large number of rogue events observed in the multifilament system, we can systematically explore the predictability of such events in a turbulent system. We observe that rogue events do not necessarily appear without a warning, but are often preceded by a short phase of relative order. This surprising finding sheds some new light on the fascinating phenomenon of rogue waves.