The process-performance paradox in expert judgment - How can experts know so much and predict so badly?
The process-performance paradox in expert judgment - How can experts know so much and predict so badly?
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发表时间：
1991
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通讯作者：
Colin Camerer;Eric J. Johnson
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作者：
Colin Camerer;Eric J. Johnson
一种神秘的致命疾病侵袭了人口中的一大部分。这种疾病是无法治愈的，但一种昂贵的药物可以让患者活下来。国会决定，这种药物应该给那些寿命可以延长的人，只有少数专家才能预测到这一点。专家们夜以继日地工作，寻找治疗方法；分配药物是他们宁愿避免的一项新家务。
A mysterious fatal disease strikes a large minority of the population. The disease is incurable, but an expensive drug can keep victims alive. Congress decides that the drug should be given to those whose lives can be extended longest, which only a few specialists can predict. The experts work around the clock searching for a cure; allocating the drug is a new chore they would rather avoid.