Development and comparison of forecast models of hand-foot-mouth disease with meteorological factors
Development and comparison of forecast models of hand-foot-mouth disease with meteorological factors
复制标题
手足口病与气象因素预测模型的建立与比较
DOI：
10.1038/s41598-019-52044-5
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发表时间：
2019-10-30
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Sun, Ji-Min
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Fu, Tao;Chen, Ting;Sun, Ji-Min
手足口病（Hand-foot-mouth disease，HFMD）是一种急性肠道病毒性传染病，是中国大陆主要的公共卫生问题之一。以往的研究表明，手足口病的发生受气候因素的影响较大，但不同地区的影响因素不同，对手足口病预测模型的研究较少。本文分析了义乌市手足口病的流行特征，并建立了三种预测模型。总体而言，浙江省义乌市共报告32554例手足口病病例，12例死亡。手足口病发病呈隔年高峰，发病曲线呈近似W型。2008 - 2016年，手足口病病例以儿童为主，≤5岁占95.76%。在此基础上，分别构建了自回归移动平均（ARIMA）模型、负二项回归模型（NBM）和拟泊松广义加性模型（GAM）三种预测模型，并对三种模型进行了比较。三种模型的预测值与实测值吻合度均较高，其中GAM模型拟合效果最好。月平均气温与手足口病的相关性呈近似V型。本研究探讨了义乌市手足口病的流行病学特征，为手足口病的早期预警提供了准确的方法，对手足口病的防控具有重要意义。
Hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) is an acute intestinal virus infectious disease which is one of major public health problems in mainland China. Previous studies indicated that HFMD was significantly influenced by climatic factors, but the associated factors were different in different areas and few study on HFMD forecast models was conducted. Here, we analyzed epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in Yiwu City, Zhejiang Province and constructed three forecast models. Overall, a total of 32554 HFMD cases were reported and 12 cases deceased in Yiwu City, Zhejiang Province. The incidence of HFMD peaked every other year and the curve of HFMD incidence had an approximately W-shape. The majority of HFMD cases were children and 95.76% cases aged ≤5 years old from 2008 to 2016. Furthermore, we constructed and compared three forecast models using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, negative binomial regression model (NBM), and quasi-Poisson generalized additive model (GAM). All the three models had high agreements between predicted values and observed values, while GAM fitted best. The exposure-response curve of monthly mean temperature and HFMD was approximately V-shaped. Our study explored epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in Yiwu City and provided accurate methods for early warning which would be great importance for the control and prevention of HFMD.