Epidemic and economic impacts of delayed detection of foot-and-mouth disease: a case study of a simulated outbreak in California
Epidemic and economic impacts of delayed detection of foot-and-mouth disease: a case study of a simulated outbreak in California
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DOI：
10.1177/104063871102300104
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发表时间：
2011-01-01
影响因子：
1.5
通讯作者：
McCarl, Bruce A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Carpenter, Tim E.;O'Brien, Joshua M.;McCarl, Bruce A.
利用流行病模拟和经济（epinomic）优化模型研究了口蹄疫病毒（FMDV）传播和控制对流行病和经济的影响。模拟的索引牛群是位于加州的>= 2，000头奶牛的奶牛场。模拟的疾病传播仅限于加州;然而，对整个美国的经济影响进行了评估，包括国际贸易影响。检查了5个指示病例的发现延迟，延迟时间从7天到22天不等。受感染场所（IP）的模拟中位数范围从大约15到745，随着检测延迟从7天增加到22天而增加。同样，隔离检疫的牛群中位数从约680头增加到6 200头，而屠宰的动物从约8 700头增加到260 400头，检测延迟时间分别为7-22天。据估计，加州口蹄疫爆发的经济影响中值将导致国家农业福利损失23亿至690亿美元，因为检测延迟分别从7天增加到22天。如果假设检测延迟21天，估计每延迟一小时，就会增加约2，000只动物被屠宰，并造成5.65亿美元的额外经济损失。这些发现强调了美国在引入FMDV之前建立有效的早期检测系统的至关重要性，如果它希望避免牲畜和经济的巨大损失。
The epidemic and economic impacts of Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) spread and control were examined by using epidemic simulation and economic (epinomic) optimization models. The simulated index herd was a >= 2,000 cow dairy located in California. Simulated disease spread was limited to California; however, economic impact was assessed throughout the United States and included international trade effects. Five index case detection delays were examined, which ranged from 7 to 22 days. The simulated median number of infected premises (IP) ranged from approximately 15 to 745, increasing as the detection delay increased from 7 to 22 days. Similarly, the median number of herds under quarantine increased from approximately 680 to 6,200, whereas animals slaughtered went from approximately 8,700 to 260,400 for detection delays of 7-22 days, respectively. The median economic impact of an FMD outbreak in California was estimated to result in national agriculture welfare losses of $2.3-$69.0 billion as detection delay increased from 7 to 22 days, respectively. If assuming a detection delay of 21 days, it was estimated that, for every additional hr of delay, the impact would be an additional approximately 2,000 animals slaughtered and an additional economic loss of $565 million. These findings underline the critical importance that the United States has an effective early detection system in place before an introduction of FMDV if it hopes to avoid dramatic losses to both livestock and the economy.