An Examination of Climate Change on Extreme Heat Events and Climate-Mortality Relationships in Large US Cities
An Examination of Climate Change on Extreme Heat Events and Climate-Mortality Relationships in Large US Cities
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DOI：
10.1175/wcas-d-11-00055.1
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发表时间：
2011-10-01
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Samenow, Jason
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Greene, Scott;Kalkstein, Laurence S.;Samenow, Jason
这项研究考察了气候变化对美国40个大城市与高温相关的死亡率的影响。一种天气气候学程序，即空间天气分类，用于评估目前的气候与死亡率的关系，并预测潜在的气候变化可能如何影响这些数值。具体地说，天气分类与从耦合的大气-海洋大气环流模型中对2020-29年、2045-55年和2090-1999年十年期间的未来气候预测相结合。结果显示，整个研究城市的过度高温事件(EHE)天数和因高温导致的死亡率增加，预计最显着的增加将发生在东南部和东北部。随着气候变化预期影响的加剧，这一增长在二十一世纪末变得更加戏剧性。此外，还研究了与不同排放情景相关的健康影响。这些结果表明，到本世纪末，“一切照旧”的温室气体减排方法可能会导致与高温相关的死亡人数是低排放情景的两倍。最后，使用在两个不同但重叠的时间段开发的算法，对未来估计的EHEs期间与高温相关的死亡率进行了比较，其中一个时期包括最近一些重大的EHE干预策略(1975-2004)，另一个没有(1975-95)。结果表明，这些公共卫生对策可以显著降低与高温相关的死亡率。
This study examines the impact of a changing climate on heat-related mortality in 40 large cities in the United States. A synoptic climatological procedure, the spatial synoptic classification, is used to evaluate present climate-mortality relationships and project how potential climate changes might affect these values. Specifically, the synoptic classification is combined with downscaled future climate projections for the decadal periods of 2020-29, 2045-55, and 2090-99 from a coupled atmospheric-oceanic general circulation model. The results show an increase in excessive heat event (EHE) days and increased heat-attributable mortality across the study cities with the most pronounced increases projected to occur in the Southeast and Northeast. This increase becomes more dramatic toward the end of the twenty-first century as the anticipated impact of climate change intensifies. The health impact associated with different emissions scenarios is also examined. These results suggest that a "business as usual'' approach to greenhouse gas emissions mitigation could result in twice as many heat-related deaths by the end of the century than a lower emissions scenario. Finally, a comparison of future estimates of heat-related mortality during EHEs is presented using algorithms developed during two different, although overlapping, time periods, one that includes some recent large-scale significant EHE intervention strategies (1975-2004), and one without (1975-95). The results suggest these public health responses can significantly decrease heat-related mortality.