Analysis of the outbreak of COVID-19 in Japan by SIQR model
Analysis of the outbreak of COVID-19 in Japan by SIQR model
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DOI：
10.1016/j.idm.2020.08.013
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发表时间：
2020-01-01
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
Odagaki, Takashi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Odagaki, Takashi
SIQR模型被用于分析日本的COVID-19爆发，其中每日确诊的新病例数被明确视为可观察值。假设社会由四个部分组成：易感个体（S），感染个体（I），隔离患者（Q）和康复个体（R），流行病的时间演变由一组常微分方程描述。结果表明，隔离率可以从每日确诊新病例的时间依赖性来确定，由此可以估计感染个体的数量。确定了日本2月中旬至4月中旬期间的感染率和隔离率，并结合政府采取的政策分析了日本疫情初期的传播特征。不同的措施的有效性进行了讨论，以控制疫情，它表明，通过PCR（聚合酶链反应）检测识别病人，并隔离他们在隔离区是更有效的封锁措施，旨在抑制社会交往的一般人群。引入了一个适用于通过检疫措施控制的流行病的感染个体的有效繁殖数。(C)2020作者Elsevier B. V.代表KeAi Communications Co.制作和主持，公司
The SIQR model is exploited to analyze the outbreak of COVID-19 in Japan where the number of the daily confirmed new cases is explicitly treated as an observable. It is assumed that the society consists of four compartments; susceptible individuals (S), infected individuals at large (I), quarantined patients (Q) and recovered individuals (R), and the time evolution of the pandemic is described by a set of ordinary differential equations. It is shown that the quarantine rate can be determined from the time dependence of the daily confirmed new cases, from which the number of infected individuals can be estimated. The infection rate and quarantine rate are determined for the period from mid-February to mid-April in Japan and transmission characteristics of the initial stages of the outbreak in Japan are analyzed in connection with the policies employed by the government. The effectiveness of different measures is discussed for controlling the outbreak and it is shown that identifying patients through PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction) testing and isolating them in a quarantine is more effective than lockdown measures aimed at inhibiting social interactions of the general population. An effective reproduction number for infected individuals at large is introduced which is appropriate to epidemics controlled by quarantine measures. (C) 2020 The Authors. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.