An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China
An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China
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中国 COVID-19 流行前 50 天内的传播控制措施调查
DOI：
10.1126/science.abb6105
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发表时间：
2020-05-08
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Dye, Christopher
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tian, Huaiyu;Liu, Yonghong;Dye, Christopher
为应对2019年12月爆发的新型冠状病毒[2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）病原体]，中国于2020年1月23日禁止往返武汉市，并实施国家应急响应。我们使用包括病例报告、人员流动和公共卫生干预措施在内的数据集调查了COVID-19的传播和控制。武汉停工与其他城市的COVID-19延迟到达2. 91天有关。与较晚开始控制的城市（20.6）相比，先发制人地实施控制措施的城市在疫情爆发的第一周报告的平均病例数（13.0）较少。暂停市内公共交通、关闭娱乐场所和禁止公众集会与病例发生率的降低有关。国家应急响应似乎延缓了COVID-19疫情在中国的增长并限制了其规模，截至2月19日（第50天）避免了数十万例病例。
Responding to an outbreak of a novel coronavirus [agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)] in December 2019, China banned travel to and from Wuhan city on 23 January 2020 and implemented a national emergency response. We investigated the spread and control of COVID-19 using a data set that included case reports, human movement, and public health interventions. The Wuhan shutdown was associated with the delayed arrival of COVID-19 in other cities by 2.91 days. Cities that implemented control measures preemptively reported fewer cases on average (13.0) in the first week of their outbreaks compared with cities that started control later (20.6). Suspending intracity public transport, closing entertainment venues, and banning public gatherings were associated with reductions in case incidence. The national emergency response appears to have delayed the growth and limited the size of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, averting hundreds of thousands of cases by 19 February (day 50).