A model of longevity, fertility and growth
A model of longevity, fertility and growth
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DOI：
10.1016/s0165-1889(00)00022-1
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发表时间：
2002-02-01
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Cipriani, GP
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Blackburn, K;Cipriani, GP
经济和人口结果是由寿命、生育率和增长的动态一般均衡模型共同决定的。重叠世代中的生殖因子在两个生命周期中安全成熟，并面临第三个周期的内生生存概率。给定这个概率，每个智能体通过选择消费和孩子的数量来最大化她的预期终身效用。生育成本高昂，因为时间必须花在抚养孩子的活动上，而不是花在生产或教育上。该模型产生了多种发展机制，根据初始条件对预期寿命、生育率、出生时间和教育投资产生不同的预测。这些预测与人口统计和发展的经验证据非常吻合。 (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. 保留所有权利。
Economic and demographic outcomes are determined jointly in a dynamic general equilibrium model of longevity, fertility and growth. Reproductive agents in overlapping generations mature safely through two periods of life and face an endogenous probability of surviving for a third period. Given this probability, each agent maximises her expected lifetime utility by choosing consumption and the number of children. Child-bearing is costly in the sense that time must be spent on child-rearing activities rather than on production or education. The model produces multiple development regimes which yield different predictions about life expectancy, fertility, timing of births and educational investment depending on initial conditions. These predictions accord strongly with the empirical evidence on demography and development. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.