The Bell Curve Revisited: Testing Controversial Hypotheses with Molecular Genetic Data.
The Bell Curve Revisited: Testing Controversial Hypotheses with Molecular Genetic Data.
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DOI：
10.15195/v3.a23
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发表时间：
2016-07
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Domingue B
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Conley D;Domingue B
1994年，Herrnstein和Murray的《钟形曲线》的出版引起了社会科学界的巨大反响。在目前的研究中，我们认为Herrnstein和Murray的断言是过早的，以他们自己的方式，考虑到缺乏可用的数据来测试基因型在美国社会成就和成就的动态中的作用。然而，今天，科学界已经可以访问至少一个具有全国代表性和全基因组分子标记的数据集。为了检验Herrnstein和Murray在1994年提出的一系列核心命题，我们使用了来自健康与退休研究的数据。首先，我们询问基因型的影响在20世纪中期出生队列的预测能力是否在增加。其次，我们询问相关基因型的选型交配是否在同一时期有所增加。最后，我们提出了教育基因型是否随着教育成果与新生儿出生数（NEB）之间日益增强的（负）关联而越来越能预测生育率（出生数[NEB]）的问题。这些问题的答案大多是否定的；虽然分子遗传标记可以预测教育程度，但我们发现很少有证据表明我们正变得越来越具有遗传分层性。
In 1994, the publication of Herrnstein’s and Murray’s The Bell Curve resulted in a social science maelstrom of responses. In the present study, we argue that Herrnstein’s and Murray’s assertions were made prematurely, on their own terms, given the lack of data available to test the role of genotype in the dynamics of achievement and attainment in U.S. society. Today, however, the scientific community has access to at least one dataset that is nationally representative and has genome-wide molecular markers. We deploy those data from the Health and Retirement Study in order to test the core series of propositions offered by Herrnstein and Murray in 1994. First, we ask whether the effect of genotype is increasing in predictive power across birth cohorts in the middle twentieth century. Second, we ask whether assortative mating on relevant genotypes is increasing across the same time period. Finally, we ask whether educational genotypes are increasingly predictive of fertility (number ever born [NEB]) in tandem with the rising (negative) association of educational outcomes and NEB. The answers to these questions are mostly no; while molecular genetic markers can predict educational attainment, we find little evidence for the proposition that we are becoming increasingly genetically stratified.