Experimental seasonal forecasts of low summer flows in the River Thames, UK, using Expert Systems
Experimental seasonal forecasts of low summer flows in the River Thames, UK, using Expert Systems
复制标题
使用专家系统对英国泰晤士河夏季低流量进行实验性季节性预测
DOI：
10.3354/cr028133
复制
发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
1.1
通讯作者：
HR Fox
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
CS Wedgbrow;RL Wilby;HR Fox
ABSTRACT: Empirical seasonal forecasts of hydroclimatic variables are typically limited by unrealis-tic assumptions about stationarity, linearity and normality. Although empirical, Expert Systems (ES)are not bound by such formal data constraints and may be trained on continuous and categorical datasimultaneously. Using an ES, summer flows for the River Thames, UK (1971 to 2001), were forecastwith up to 6 mo lead-time from climate data from the preceding winter months. The ES models suc-cessfully forecast the correct sign of August flow anomalies up to 77% of the time and June to Augustanomalies 71% of the time. Forecasts of low flow (lowest quartile of the long-term average) in Augustand summer as a whole were correctly forecast 79 and 89% of the time, respectively. The models alsocorrectly predicted below-average flows for the drought years of 1976, 1984, 1989 to 1992, 1995 and 1997. These extreme events would not have been captured by a forecast based on long-termclimatology alone.KEY WORDS: Seasonal forecasting · Expert System · Low flows · River Thames
