Mechanistic Modeling of SARS-CoV-2 and Other Infectious Diseases and the Effects of Therapeutics.

Mechanistic Modeling of SARS-CoV-2 and Other Infectious Diseases and the Effects of Therapeutics.
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DOI:
10.1002/cpt.2160
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发表时间:
2021-04
影响因子:
6.7
通讯作者:
Ke R
Ke R
中科院分区:
医学2区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Perelson AS;Ke R

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现代病毒动力学建模及其在治疗学中的应用是在艾滋病流行的早期吸引了医学,制药和建模社区的注意力的领域。它的成功导致建模方法不仅应用于HIV,而且还应用于大量其他病毒,如丙型肝炎病毒(HCV),B肝炎病毒(HBV)和巨细胞病毒(CMV),这些病毒与HIV沿着导致慢性疾病,以及流感病毒,呼吸道合胞病毒(RSV),西尼罗河病毒(WNV),寨卡病毒和SARS-CoV-2等病毒,这些病毒通常会导致急性感染。在这里,我们首先回顾了数学模型的历史发展,以了解HIV和HCV感染和治疗的效果,通过拟合模型的临床数据。然后,我们重点介绍了应用这些模型来理解SARS-CoV-2感染的最新努力和贡献,并强调了建模可以提供关键见解并有助于优化COVID-19大流行的非药物和药物干预措施的突出问题。这篇综述是从我们个人的角度写的,强调了简单的靶细胞有限模型的力量,这些模型提供了重要的见解,然后它们演变成更复杂的模型,捕获了更多的病毒学和免疫学。引用阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦的话“一切都应该尽可能简单,但不是更简单”,这个想法是我们下面描述的建模的基础。
Modern viral kinetic modeling and its application to therapeutics is a field that attracted the attention of the medical, pharmaceutical and modeling communities during the early days of the AIDS epidemic. Its successes lead to applications of modeling methods not only to HIV but a plethora of other viruses, such as hepatitis C virus (HCV), hepatitis B virus (HBV) and cytomegalovirus (CMV), which along with HIV cause chronic diseases, and viruses such as influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), West Nile virus (WNV), Zika virus, and SARS-CoV-2, which generally cause acute infections. Here we first review the historical development of mathematical models to understand HIV and HCV infections and the effects of treatment by fitting the models to clinical data. We then focus on recent efforts and contributions of applying these models towards understanding SARS-CoV-2 infection and highlight outstanding questions where modeling can provide crucial insights and help to optimize non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions of the COVID-19 pandemic. The review is written from our personal perspective emphasizing the power of simple target cell limited models that provided important insights and then their evolution into more complex models that captured more of the virology and immunology. To quote Albert Einstein “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler”, and this idea underlies the modeling we describe below.
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